Baylor vs Kansas State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Strong Matchups Lead to Lesser Scoring

A pair of Top 15 teams in the Big 12 square off Tuesday night as the No. 9 Baylor Bears hit the road to face the No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats.

Baylor has won 10 of its last 12 games and that’s enough to make the Bears narrow road favorites against a tough opponent in conference play. This will be their second straight road game after losing by 16 to Kansas on Saturday.

The Wildcats got back in the win column over the weekend against Iowa State and will look to build momentum and pull off an impressive sweep over Scott Drew’s side. 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Kansas State on Tuesday, February 21 below.

Baylor vs Kansas State best odds

Baylor vs Kansas State picks and predictions

Kansas State has been an extremely profitable team for bettors to back this season. The Wildcats are 17-10 against the spread and have been prolific at home with an 11-4 ATS mark. 

They have been a very tough out at home, notching 14 wins in 15 games at Bramlage Coliseum. The lone loss came against Texas in a narrow 69-66 defeat on February 4 — a game in which Kansas State led 36-25 at the half. 

The advanced numbers still aren’t quite sold on this squad, as the Wildcats rank 25th overall in KenPom — 59th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 20th in adjusted defensive efficiency. 

Tuesday’s opponent won’t go down easily. The Bears won 10 of 11 games as one of the hottest teams in America before collapsing in the second half Saturday in an 87-71 effort. 

Baylor’s terrific offense ranks second in adjusted efficiency, while the defense lags behind at 87th. The Bears are 14-12-1 ATS this season thanks to a recent hot streak that includes four covers in their last five games. 

The first time these teams met, they played a thrilling overtime game that ended in a 97-95 Wildcats' victory in Waco. Kansas State got whatever it wanted offensively, shooting 53.1% from the field while cashing in 11 of 25 attempts (44%) from behind the arc. 

I’m not expecting a repeat of that impressive offensive performance — from either team — and will be targeting the Under with my best bet. 

Baylor’s offense is elite, but the Bears don’t exactly set the world on fire with their pace. They rank 217th in adjusted tempo (KenPom), preferring to play methodically until they find an open look. Kansas State has a Top-20 defense, so those looks may not be so easy to come by.

The Bears can tend to live and die by the three, ranking 20th in 3-pointers made per game (9.4) on 25.9 attempts. The Wildcats just so happen to be elite at defending the arc, ranking 11th in 3-point defense (28.9%) while surrendering just 6.0 triples per contest. Per Haslametrics, the Wildcats rank seventh in 3-point field goal percentage allowed against the average opponent. They are elite by any metric.

Baylor’s defense isn’t great, but it excels at limiting what Kansas State does best. The Wildcats like to attack the rim offensively, ranking 34th in near-proximity attempts per 100 trips upcourt vs. the average opponent (Haslametrics) — well above their marks from both the mid-range (280th) and 3-point land (257th). Baylor attempts to limit easy looks in the paint at all costs — ranking 10th in near-proximity attempts allowed. 

Give me the Under.

My best bet: Under 146 (-110 at WynnBet)

Baylor vs Kansas State spread analysis

Baylor currently resides between -2 and -2.5 on the road. 

Scott Drew’s side has been on a hot streak in the betting market, covering four of its last five games. The Bears have been terrific in this spot, going 33-16-3 ATS in their last 52 road games against teams with a winning record. Another feather in their cap from a trends perspective is that the road team is 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings between these two schools. 

On the other hand, Kansas State has been a wagon at home — covering seven of its last eight at Bramlage. The Wildcats have been a terrific bet against winning teams, going 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games against teams with a winning percentage above .500. 

This game is close enough that I won’t have a bet on either side and am shying away from picking a winner. Baylor is too bad defensively for me to have much confidence playing them as a favorite on the road against a team with a far superior defense, so I suppose my lean is toward the home team.

Baylor vs Kansas State Over/Under analysis

This line opened at 145.5 at most locations but there is also 146 available at current. In the event that this line creeps up, I’ll fancy the Over even more. In the event that it starts to move in the other direction, I’d play it down to 144.5. 

One worry in this spot is the pace, as Kansas State likes to get out and run. Tang’s squad ranks 52nd in adjusted tempo (KenPom), so the concern would be if they try to make this a transition game and impose their pace at home. Considering the Under has cashed in five straight Wildcats home games, I’m willing to overlook those concerns. 

While Baylor’s defense is still a concern, there are reasons to believe it’s improved in the last month. The Bears held six of their last seven opponents below 70 points before imploding in an 87-71 loss at Kansas over the weekend. I’m not sure if you’ve heard this or not, but those kids in Lawrence know how to play basketball and Allen Fieldhouse isn’t an easy place to play. I’m not willing to say that the sky is falling or that Baylor’s defense is regressing back to its prior form.

Baylor vs Kansas State betting trend to know

Kansas State is 5-0 to the Under in its last five home games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Kansas State.

Baylor vs Kansas State game info

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