Baylor vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bears Invade Sparta

In what looked like one of the better early non-conference matchups of the season just a few weeks ago, No. 6 Baylor heads to East Lansing to go toe-to-toe with a Michigan State program that’s been nothing short of a disappointment.

Scott Drew has proven that, despite its youth, this is a feisty Bears team and should be a true contender come March, while Tom Izzo’s Spartans have lost three of their last four. In a game that could get out of hand, the college basketball odds have Baylor as favorites at the Breslin Center Due to Sparty’s struggles.

Find out where my best bets lie in our college basketball picks and predictions for Baylor vs. Michigan State on Saturday, December 16.

Baylor vs Michigan State best odds

Baylor vs Michigan State picks and predictions

The Bears are the superior program right now in every way. They should stay undefeated as a three-point favorite against this Michigan State team that’s coming off a seven-point loss to Nebraska.

Coming into the year as a Top-10 team, Izzo’s squad has yet to have a moment this season where it looks like it can even live up to a fraction of the hype. It’s 4-5, with all four wins coming against mid-majors, and losing on average to Power Five teams 73.7 to 65.

In its most recent Top-25 matchup, No. 23 Wisconsin rolled Michigan State 70-57 in East Lansing, and Baylor should be capable of similar results on the road. The Bears -3 is the best play, simply because Sparty continues to prove it can’t keep up with the big guns.

Izzo’s team just cannot seem to find any offensive consistency, scoring only 72.3 points per game, 244th in the country, and having just one player averaging over 11 points per game. The entire offense runs through guard Tyson Walker, the former CAA Player of the Year at Northeastern. 

Walker’s a volume shooter who’s putting up 20.3 points per game and is the main reason Michigan State has been able to keep it close in some of these losses. However, Walker’s been an inconsistent shooter who relies on the mid-range game; something Baylor can key in on. He’s hitting just 60% of his free throws and while his 33% from behind the arc is respectable, Walker is one of the few who can seem to hit a three when Michigan State needs it.

The Spartans are shooting an abysmal 29.5% from three, 311th in college basketball, and of its six players who take at least two threes per game, only two are hitting above 30%. That inability to shoot goes beyond the three, when they get to the free throw line it’s just as bad. 

The team only gets to the line 19.2 times per game, 201st, and hits just 68.2% of its free throws, 266th. Three of the Spartans five players who take at least two free throws per game are shooting 60% or worse.

Michigan State’s shooting problems lend well to Baylor, which hasn’t been dominant on defense, but has been solid. The Bears are holding teams to 67.6 points per game and 41% shooting from the floor.

Drew’s team has been at its best defending the three, where it’s holding opponents to just 28.7% shooting from behind the arc, 39th best in the country, and allowing just six threes per game. What should really come in handy for Baylor is the threat it poses defensively around the rim against a Spartans team that wants to drive the ball.

Led by Yves Missi, a freshman from Cameroon, Baylor is 35th in the country in blocks per game with 5.1. Missi is averaging 2.2 himself and Jalen Bridges is adding another 1.2. Those two could do some real damage on both ends against a Michigan State program that’s been grasping at straws when it comes to play in the post.

After the loss to Nebraska, Izzo called out bigs Mady Sissoko and Carson Cooper — who average a combined 7.6 points in 35.8 minutes.

“The way I feel right now? Nick (Sanders) and Steven (Izzo) are options," Izzo said about possible solutions inside. Neither of those players are taller than 5-foot-10.

Things aren’t going well in East Lansing and this team will have its hands full, not just with Missi and Bridges, but with freshman dynamo Ja’Kobe Walter.

Walter, a potential NBA lottery pick, has been on fire all season after dropping 28 points against Auburn in his debut. He leads an offense that’s scoring 91.1 points per game, fourth-most in the country, and shoots 43.2% from three, second-best in college basketball.

Walter’s been money from the free throw line, 88.1%, and leads the team with 14.9 points per game. The addition of Toledo transfer RayJ Dennis has been nearly as impactful too. He’s scoring 14.2 per game while leading the team with 6.6 assists per game.

Those two have been one of the best backcourts in the sport and it certainly has helped that three of the other four highest usage players are shooting above 40% from three and above 77% from the free-throw line. Outside of Missi, who has been a monster in the paint, every Baylor player playing at least 15 minutes has been an efficient shooter.

There’s too much on this Baylor offense for Michigan State to keep pace.

My best bet: Baylor -3 (-110 at bet365)

Baylor vs Michigan State same-game parlay

Baylor -3.5 

Ja’Kobe Walter Over 13.5 

Over 144.5 

+425 at bet365

Ja'Kobe Walter is one of the best freshmen in college basketball and has had three performances of 23 or more points already this season. He can drive to the rim or pull from deep, and Michigan State doesn’t have an athlete who can compete with his explosiveness and length.

Walter has scored at least 14 points in five of nine games this season and is averaging 21 points per game against Power Five teams. With Walter scoring at a high clip, Baylor should help hit this Over.

Baylor hasn’t scored less than 77 points this season and has put up at least 88 in seven of its nine games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Baylor vs Michigan State spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bears opened as high as 4.5-point favorites at some books with most coming down to between three and 3.5.

Baylor has been one of the best teams in the country ATS this season going 6-1-1. Drew’s team has covered in four straight. The Spartans, on the other hand, are just 3-6 ATS and 1-3 in its last four.

Given the Bears’ high-flying offense, the total opened between 143.5 and 144.5 and has remained there. Baylor is 5-3 betting the Over this season and Michigan State is 2-7.

Baylor vs Michigan State betting trend to know

Baylor has hit the Over in 7 of its last 11 away games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Baylor vs. Michigan State.

Baylor vs Michigan State game info

Baylor vs Michigan State key injuries

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