Boise State vs San Diego State Mountain West Final Picks and Predictions: Defense Wins Championships

The No. 1 seed Boise State Broncos and No. 3 seed San Diego State Aztecs meet Saturday in Las Vegas with the Mountain West Championship on the line.

Both teams are comfortably within the NCAA Tournament field and therefore do not require the automatic bid, but bragging rights and history will be on the line.

The Aztecs will be looking for their sixth Mountain West Tournament Championship, while the Broncos are looking for their first.

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Boise State vs. San Diego State on Saturday, March 12.

Boise State vs San Diego State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

San Diego State opened -2 across most books, and that line hasn’t moved an inch as of Saturday morning. The total opened 118.5 and also hasn’t budged. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Boise State vs San Diego State predictions

• Prediction: Boise State +2 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 118.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Boise State +2 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Boise State vs San Diego State game info

• Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Boise State vs San Diego State betting preview

Injuries

Boise State: None.
San Diego State: Keith Dinwiddie Jr. G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Boise State vs. San Diego State.

Boise State vs San Diego State picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Boise State has never won a Mountain West Tournament Championship. The Broncos will be looking to make program history at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, as they battle with perennial conference contender San Diego State.

The Broncos earned the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament and have narrowly squeaked by their competition to advance. Following a first-round bye, they topped Nevada 71-69 in the second round and outed Wyoming 68-61 in the semifinal. They’ve relished the role of underdog this season, going 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games when catching points. 

The Aztecs have been a profitable team to back, sitting at 17-13 ATS on the season. They’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a favorite and 7-2 in their last nine overall. The defense is phenomenal, ranking second nationally in scoring defense at only 58.3 points allowed per game. 

These teams met twice this season, with the away team emerging victorious each time. Boise won 42-37 in San Diego on Jan. 22 in a rock fight in which the Broncos shot 31% from the field while the Aztecs connected on just 28% of their attempts. San Diego State won the rematch in Boise on Feb. 22 by a score of 58-57. 

San Diego State ranks 22nd in adjusted efficiency, a few spots ahead of Boise State (28th). Matt Bradley is the only player in double-digits, averaging 17.0 points per game. Nathan Mensah leads the charge down low, averaging 7.4 points and 7.0 rebounds per night. 

Boise State has three players averaging double-digits in the scoring department: Abu Kigab, Marcus Shaver, and Emmanuel Akot. This is a very talented team and one prepared to make a run in March. The Aztecs will be a very tough out and this rubber match is sure to be a nail-biter just like the first two meetings, so we’re inclined to take the underdog in such a tight contest. The Broncos have more ways to generate offense, which is crucial when points will be so hard to come by.

Prediction: Boise State +2 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Any time you see a total below 120, you know to expect a rock fight. Considering that these teams combined for 79 points in the first meeting and 115 in the second, the matchup’s reputation holds true.

The Aztecs are an exceptional defensive bunch, ranking second in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Broncos rank 75th in adjusted offensive efficiency and average 69.2 points per game.

For as terrific as San Diego State is defensively, it might be just as bad on the offensive end. The Aztecs average only 66.3 points per game while ranking 150th in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Broncos rank 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency and allow only 60.8 points per game.

This one should be a grind, yet again, played at a slow pace. The Aztecs rank 265th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom, while the Broncos check-in at 299th. Both of the previous matchups were slow-paced and low-scoring, and there’s no reason to expect any differently here.

It’s a low number, but it’s justified. We expect this one to go Under.

Prediction: Under 118.5 (-110)

Best bet

We feel good about this game being low-scoring, but the total is so low at 118.5 that it could bust if either team cracks 60. Therefore, we’ll be looking at the Boise State side as our best bet.

Both teams are elite defensively, but only one is serviceable offensively — the Broncos. The Aztecs rank 150th in adjusted offensive efficiency, which we simply can’t trust. This game will be close and a bucket or two is likely to sway the outcome of this Mountain West Championship — we can’t trust the Aztecs to put the ball in the hoop.

Pick: Boise State +2 (-110)

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