The Boston College Eagles face off against the Louisville Cardinals in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday afternoon. The Eagles finished in 10th place in the conference standings with a 9-11 record while the Cardinals went just 2-18 to sit at the bottom.
College basketball odds hit the board for this matchup with the Eagles installed as 6-point favorites on neutral ground at the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. Check out my college basketball betting picks for Boston College vs. Louisville below.
Boston College vs Louisville best odds
Boston College vs Louisville picks and predictions
The Louisville Cardinals aren't just the worst team in the ACC, they might be the worst Power Six team in the country. They are 312th in the NET rankings and they looked terrible even before conference play began, beginning their campaign with losses to tiny Bellarmine, Wright State, and Appalachian State.
They've won just four games all season (all at home) and two of those came against Florida A&M and Western Kentucky. They didn't even look decent in those contests, winning by six points against a Rattlers team that went just 4-14 in the SWAC and allowing the Hilltoppers to drop 83 points.
This is a Cardinals team that's awful on both ends of the floor and has one of the worst turnover margins in the country. The Boston College Eagles don't really stand out in any one area but they are still significantly better than Louisville across the board.
The one factor that makes me reluctant to back the Eagles is the health of their leading scorer and ACC Most Improved Player Quinten Post (15.2 points per game on 54/44/85 shooting splits). The Eagles are 7-4 SU in their last 11 games in which Post started and finished, but they looked lost on offense in their last contest when he departed the game with an ankle injury after just a couple of minutes.
Post will be a game-time decision but BC head coach Earl Grant sounded positive on Monday describing it as "a sprained ankle, nothing more than that."
The Cardinals are an instant-fade kind of team, especially with a reasonable 6-point line today. However, I'll wait until before tipoff to see whether or not Post is warming up before laying the points with BC but I'd go as high as -7.5 if their star big man suits up.
My best bet: Boston College -6 (-110 at bet365)
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Boston College vs Louisville spread analysis
With Post sidelined by that ankle injury, Boston College lost at home to Georgia Tech by a score of 73-65 in its regular season finale. That defeat snapped a three-game winning streak for the Eagles, who pulled off a 15-point win against No. 13 Virginia during that span.
Louisville is coming off a 75-60 road loss to Virginia which was its fourth straight loss by double digits. The Cardinals were last in the ACC with an average scoring margin of minus-12.1 ppg in conference play — a whopping 5.2 ppg worse than second-last Florida State.
As bad as the Cardinals have been, it's worth mentioning that oddsmakers have adjusted to their brutal play and they've subsequently gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Cardinals are 13th in the ACC with a 42.7 field goal percentage in conference play while ranking dead last in opponent field goal percentage (46.8%). They are also near the bottom of the country in both turnover rate and opponent turnover rate leading to a turnover margin of minus-5.5 per game against ACC foes.
BC isn't great but is still much better in all those areas. The Eagles shot 44.5% from the field against conference foes while limiting them to 44.7% shooting. They also had a more respectable (albeit still negative) turnover margin of minus-0.7 in ACC action.
It's been a one-man show for Louisville with El Ellis leading the team with 17.7 points and 4.4 assists in 36.0 minutes per game. After Ellis, there's a massive dropoff to Mike James (10.1 ppg) and Jae'Lyn Withers (9.0 ppg), with nobody else averaging more than 7.0 ppg.
To be fair, there is also a significant dropoff from Post to the Eagles' second-leading scorer Makai Ashton-Langford (12.1 ppg while shooting just 29.9% from deep).
BC struggled earlier in the season when Post missed the first 16 games with a foot injury but does have some good news on the injury front with starting guard DeMarr Langford Jr. expected to return after missing the last two games.
Boston College vs Louisville Over/Under analysis
These teams faced off earlier this year on Jan. 25, with the Eagles fighting back from a 6-point deficit at the half to win 75-65 at home. Although they combined for 140 points to easily surpass the O/U of 132.5 in that contest, that was with the Cardinals shooting 53% from the floor and going 9-18 from beyond the arc.
That was an outlier performance from a Louisville team that ranks outside the Top 300 in FG% (42.2%) and outside the Top 250 in 3PT% (33%). The Cardinals rank near the bottom of the country in scoring with 64.0 ppg with that number dropping to 60.8 ppg in their last four games.
That said, they are almost just as bad on the other end of the floor and surrender 75.6 ppg with that number ticking up to 78.6 ppg over the last month.
The Eagles are a slower-paced team that averages just 66.3 ppg but the Over has gone 17-7 in their 24 games overall. The Over has also cashed in four of the last five contests for Louisville.
Boston College vs Louisville betting trend to know
The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven neutral site games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. Georgia Tech.
Boston College vs Louisville game info
| Conference: | ACC Round 1 |
| Location: | Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, March 7, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ACC Network |
