Bradley vs Drake Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs Are Bridesmaids No More

Chalk held firm in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, as No. 1 seed Bradley faces No. 2 seed Drake in a clash between the MVC’s top two teams.

It’s the matchup that nearly everyone wanted to see to conclude “Arch Madness.” Bradley (25-8) narrowly edged Drake (26-7) to win the regular season conference crown, but the competition atop the MVC has been fierce, and figures to make for a dramatic finale.

Win and move on to the NCAA Tournament. Lose and go home. 

Which team will win the right to go dancing? Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Drake vs. Bradley on Sunday, March 5 to find out.

Bradley vs Drake best odds

Bradley vs Drake picks and predictions

“Arch Madness” holds a special place in the hearts of most college basketball diehards as one of the most fun conference tournaments in the sport. The Sunday afternoon finale at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis figures to be a great one between the MVC’s top two programs.

Bradley won the regular season conference title for the first time since 1996. The Braves ended the regular season on a 10-game winning streak, and have won two straight in St. Louis. This is one of the hottest teams in America, and Brian Wardle’s side will look to continue its strong momentum en route to an NCAA Tournament appearance.

The Braves have the conference’s best defense, surrendering just 61.5 ppg while ranking 40th in adjusted efficiency (KenPom). A pair of 6-foot-9 forwards from the Netherlands lead the team in scoring – Rienk Mast with 14.6 ppg, and Malevy Leons with 11.5 ppg. No other Braves average double figures, although four separate players average between 8.0 and 9.7 ppg.

The Braves survived scares from both Northern Iowa (72-66) and Indiana State (71-70) to advance to the finals. The semifinal was particularly close, as the Braves blew an 11-point second-half lead to go down 70-69 with 36 seconds remaining. 

With the game on the line, the Braves chucked up an ill-advised brick that could have ended their season, but Leons was fouled while securing the offensive rebound with six seconds remaining. He nailed both free throws to secure a bid to the championship game. 

Drake ranks four spots ahead of Bradley in KenPom — 78th, to Bradley’s 82nd. Darian DeVries' squad excels on the defensive end as well, allowing just 64.7 ppg while checking in at 52nd in adjusted efficiency.

The Bulldogs are led by Tucker DeVries, arguably the best player in the MVC. He averages 19.2 ppg to lead the team. Roman Penn is the only other player in double figures (12.6 ppg), and he has been in fantastic form, scoring at least 10 points in 12 straight games while averaging 17.2 ppg across that span.

The Bulldogs have made light work of their opponents through the first two rounds of the tournament, first dispatching Murray State 74-62 before keeping Southern Illinois at arm’s reach in a 65-52 win in the semifinal. 

Drake will look to avoid what it’s done each of the last two seasons — come up one win shy of going dancing. The Bulldogs lost in the MVC Tournament finals in both 2021 and 2022 to Loyola. Needless to say, they likely aren’t shedding any tears now that the Ramblers are no longer a part of “Arch Madness,” as they’re now a member of the Atlantic 10 Conference.

The Bulldogs last captured an MVC Tournament Championship back in 2008, whereas Bradley came out on top in both 2019 and 2020. 

These teams met twice in the regular season, with the home team gaining the upper hand both times. Drake secured a blowout 86-61 win at home back on Jan. 14, and Bradley got revenge at home with a 73-61 victory on Feb. 26 to conclude the regular season. 

There’s not much separating these teams, but I do believe that Drake holds a slight advantage. The Bulldogs may have the best player and the best coach in the conference. Bradley is certainly no slouch, but the Braves came within inches of losing to Indiana State in the semifinal, and were bailed out on a rebounding foul with six seconds remaining. 

The Braves held one of the best homecourt advantages in the country with a pristine 15-1 record at home. They’re a pedestrian 10-6 in games away from home, however, including an ugly 0-5 ATS record in games on a neutral court. 

Drake is 6-0 SU on a neutral court this season and is 4-1-1 ATS in those games. DeVries’ squad has plenty of extra motivation — whatever that’s worth in a championship game — considering the two straight defeats suffered in the 2021 and 2022 MVC title games. 

Give me Drake to go dancing. 

My best bet: Drake moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

Bradley vs Drake spread analysis

This line opened close to a pick ‘em, with the spread sitting between Drake -1 and -1.5. The Bulldogs are -115 on the moneyline, while the comeback on the Braves is -105. 

This is a very tight game between two teams that split the regular season meetings. The advanced numbers don’t see much separating these teams, and neither do the oddsmakers — for good reason. 

Both teams have been on fire lately, as Drake is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games, while Bradley is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games. History suggests Drake will prevail, as the favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. 

Drake likes to win the three-point battle as a team, converting at a high rate offensively (36.8% — good for 54th nationally) while shutting down the arc defensively (30.9% — 34th nationally). 

Interestingly enough, Bradley has very similar numbers and also excels at both. The Braves shoot 36.7% from behind the arc (58th) while limiting opponents to just 31.2% (46th). 

With the three-point handicap seemingly a wash, I looked elsewhere to find strengths or weaknesses for both teams. 

The most important thing that stood out was Bradley’s defense, and how it really likes to force opponents to the mid-range. The Braves rank 339th in opponent mid-range attempt rate (Haslametrics), evidence of a defensive game plan that runs opponents off the three-point line while walling off the rim.

This is a smart plan against most teams, but Drake just so happens to be an elite mid-range shooting team. The Bulldogs thrive off such shots, shooting them at a high frequency (54th in mid-range attempt rate) and converting them at a startingly effective rate (17th in mid-range shooting).

Bradley vs Drake Over/Under analysis

The total has opened at 130.5 at some books and 131 at others. There has been no line movement as of the time of this writing. 

Drake is 17-15 to the Under this season, including a 12-10 mark during conference play. The Bulldogs have been trending heavily in that direction, cashing Under tickets in each of their last five games. The Under is 5-1 across their six neutral site games this season. 

Bradley is split down the middle at 16-16 on totals this season. After starting the season as an Under team, the Braves have completely reversed course with a 12-5 mark to the Over across their last 17 games. 

The respective defenses will be the two best units on the court. Both teams rank outside the Top 105 in offense efficiency, but inside the Top 55 in defensive efficiency. Neither team likes to push the pace, either, as Drake checks in at 214th in adjusted tempo (KenPom) while Bradley is in no hurry at all (282nd).

This is a championship game, so it’s understandable if both teams come out of the gates a little shaky given the nerves. With that being the case, I don’t mind a look at the first half (once lines are released) or full game Unders. 

Bradley vs Drake betting trend to know

Bradley is 0-5 ATS in neutral site games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Bradley vs. Drake.

Bradley vs Drake game info

Bradley vs Drake key injuries

Pages related to this topic