Cincinnati vs Memphis Odds, Picks and Predictions: AAC Matchup Produces Buckets in Bunches

The Cincinnati Bearcats will get a chance to get back into the bubble conversation on Sunday afternoon when they travel to Memphis to face off with fellow bubble contender and conference rival Memphis Tigers. 

Cincinnati is 19-10 overall and 10-6 in AAC play, winning three of its last four games. The Bearcats lost to Memphis at home in late January by a score of 75-68. The Tigers are 21-7 overall, 11-4 in AAC play, and currently in the “Last Four Byes” in ESPN’s bracketology.

Can Cincinnati get back into the conversation of making the NCAA tournament with a big road win? Read our college basketball betting picks for Cincinnati vs. Memphis below to find out. 

Cincinnati vs Memphis best odds

Cincinnati vs Memphis picks and predictions

Both programs play a similar style to each other, but at slightly different levels. Cincinnati ranks 10th in the country with 63.3 field goal attempts per game, while Memphis ranks 57th with 60.3. Defensively, the Bearcats allow 59.0 attempts per contest (264th), while the Tigers allow 60.1 (295th). 

Where Memphis can pull away from Cincy is its ability to get to the free throw line. The Tigers average 21.5 free throw attempts, which ranks 38th in the country. Meanwhile, the Bearcats only average 16.2 attempts from the charity stripe (278th). Memphis made six more free throws in the first matchup and that was basically the only differentiator. 

However, Memphis will be without senior guard Keonte Kennedy. He is the Tigers' third-leading scorer and had 10 points, three rebounds, two assists, and two blocks in the first matchup in Cincy. Memphis has played three games without Kennedy but has still managed to score exactly 83 points in each of those games. 

This is a positive sign that other players will step up for the Tigers given that they've exceeded their scoring average without him. Cincinnati allows 69.3 points per game on the season and in their last three road games, they have allowed 101, 75, and 71 points to lesser competition. Only UCF failed to reach their season average against Cincy in those three games. 

Memphis is very likely to reach 80 points in this game and Cincinnati is likely to match with their similarities in style. Both teams will get plenty of scoring opportunities and neither team is likely to dominate any stat category. Take the Over.

My best bet: Over 152.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Cincinnati vs Memphis spread analysis

Despite being 21-7 straight up, Memphis is just 12-14-2 against the spread. Similarly, the Tigers are 12-1 SU at home, but just 4-9 ATS in those games and 9-12-1 ATS as a favorite this season. 

On the other end, the Bearcats are 19-10 SU and 18-10 ATS. Only 24 teams have a better ATS record than Cincinnati. With both teams so evenly matched statistically, it's hard not to like the underdog in this scenario. 

The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two programs. The Bearcats are an impressive 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss and 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games overall. The Tigers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games against winning teams and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games at home.

This game is important for both teams’ NCAA tournament hopes and if I had to pick a winner, I'm of course going to roll with the more talented roster. However, Memphis is unlikely to win this game going away. Give me the Bearcats as underdogs to cover the spread. 

Cincinnati vs Memphis Over/Under analysis

Both teams get up plenty of shots, but they get them in slightly different ways. Memphis relies on tempo and multiple possessions, as they average 75.8 possessions per contest, which ranks 10th in the nation. The Tigers also rank 16th in adjusted tempo in the KenPom's rankings. 

The Over is 5-0-1 in the Bearcats' last six games overall and 5-0 in their last five road games. The Over is 7-1 in the Tigers' last eight games following an ATS win and 4-1 in their last five home games. The Over is a combined 32-23-1 in each of these two teams’ games this season. 

High tempo with lots of shots and similar rebounding numbers should lead to lots of scoring for both teams. Since the game is also likely to be close late, if the total is in jeopardy, some late fouling and free throws could push the game Over. However, I think this game will have no issues going above the total. 

Cincinnati vs Memphis betting trend to know

The Over is 5-2-1 in the Bearcats last eight games against a team with a winning percentage above .600. Find more college basketball betting trends for Cincinnati vs. Memphis.

Cincinnati vs Memphis game info

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