There’s college basketball action in Nashville early Sunday afternoon as the Tennessee Volunteers (1-0) of the SEC take on the Colorado Buffaloes (1-1) of the Pac-12.
Tennessee beat Tennessee Tech 75-43 in the opener and is looking to improve upon last year’s 27-8 record and a second-round loss in the NCAA Tournament.
Colorado just missed going dancing with a 21-12 record a year ago and will need to get off the mat after falling 83-74 to Grambling in its last game.
Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Colorado vs. Tennessee below.
Colorado vs Tennessee best odds
Colorado vs Tennessee picks and predictions
The No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers might be even better than their initial AP Poll ranking would suggest.
Rick Barnes’ squad is ranked as high as No. 4 in KenPom’s overall power ratings and there is a general belief that they can be even better than last year’s team — a team that won the SEC Tournament.
Barnes’ staple has been coaching elite defenses and that shouldn’t change this season. The Vols have finished as a Top-6 defense in three of their last five seasons in a remarkable display of consistent greatness on that side of the floor.
Three starters return in the backcourt, where Santiago Vescovi (13.3 ppg), Josiah-Jordan James (10.3 ppg), and Zakai Zeigler (8.8 ppg) provide plenty of experience. Highly touted newcomers like BJ Edwards, DJ Jefferson, and Tyreke Key are expected to bolster this roster and provide an influx of talent.
After a tough start last season, the Colorado Buffaloes won seven of their last eight regular season games. It’s to be determined if that momentum will carry over to 2022-23, however, as the Buffs lost a ton from last year’s team.
Leading scorer and rebounder Jabari Walker departed early for the NBA, program stalwart Evan Battey graduated, and double-digit scorer Keeshawn Barthelemy hit the transfer portal. Guard KJ Simpson (7.4 ppg as a freshman) and forward Tristan da Silva (9.4 ppg) are expected to lead the charge this season, while Ethan Wright and Jalen Gabbidon arrive as two Ivy League transfers who will see minutes off the bench.
Tennessee is 4-0 all-time against Colorado and will be the more comfortable team in this “neutral” site of Bridgestone Arena, which conveniently will also host the SEC Tournament.
The Vols knocked off No. 2 Gonzaga in a preseason exhibition game by a final score of 99-80, showing the caliber of team we’re dealing with in this matchup. They should dispatch the Buffaloes with relative ease if they play a quality game.
My best bet: Tennessee -14.5 (-115 at PointsBet)
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Colorado vs Tennessee spread analysis
The spread opened -12.5 in favor of Tennessee, but it quickly widened. At the time of this writing, the Vols can be had from anywhere between -14.5 and -16, depending on the sportsbook.
The Buffaloes have the making of a solid team that could be in the middle of the Pac-12 standings. Despite losing a lot of talent from a year ago, they are a well-coached team under Tad Boyle that should remain competitive... in conference games, at least.
Colorado checks in at No. 74 in KenPom, which — for reference — is one spot behind Drake. The Buffs lack a go-to scorer and elite-level talent, which could hurt them in this matchup against a Tennessee team that has hopes of competing for a National Championship.
Colorado has struggled against tough competition, going just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games against a team with a winning record. This is a program that typically plays much better at home than on the road — the Buffs are 1-5 ATS in their last six neutral site games and the crowd in Nashville should be heavily in favor of the Vols.
The Vols have been profitable in neutral site games — going 4-1 ATS in their last five — and should thrive in this venue.
Colorado vs Tennessee Over/Under analysis
Be sure to shop around if playing the total, as there is a lot of fluctuation in the market. The lowest total on the board at the time of this writing is 137 at PointsBet, while FanDuel’s 139.5 is at the top of the market.
The Over has been a money train in Colorado games, going 6-0 in its last six games overall dating back to last season. The Buffs tend to get into high-scoring affairs in neutral site games, going Over the total in 11 of their last 16 such contests.
The Buffs will look to push the tempo, ranking 60th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric. They could struggle mightily to remain efficient, however, as they check in at just 97th in adjusted offense and go against a powerhouse Tennessee defense ranking second in adjusted defense.
Tennesee could be happy to sit on the ball in this spot and let its suffocating defense do the work. The Vols rank just 264th in adjusted tempo and don’t seem to have any obvious reason for upping that pace in this matchup where they can control the game flow.
Despite Colorado trending to the Over, this will be a very difficult spot for them against one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Buffs lost their offensive stalwarts from a season ago and are still searching for an identity, which is trouble in this matchup.
Playing the Under 139.5 at FanDuel would be my recommended angle if playing the total.
Colorado vs Tennessee betting trend to know
Colorado is 1-5 ATS in its last six neutral site games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Colorado vs. Tennessee.
Colorado vs Tennessee game info
| Location: | Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN |
| Date: | Sunday, November 13, 2022 |
| Tip-off: | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: |
ESPN |
