Creighton vs Providence Odds, Picks and Predictions: Not Fri-Day Yet

A big-time Big East battle between two conference heavyweights gets going when the Creighton Bluejays travel to Rhode Island to face the Providence Friars.

Hottest team in the country? The Bluejays could make a case for it. Creighton has won eight straight games, a streak that easily tops in the Big East and one of the best in the country. They come into this matchup off a tough, nail-biting win over Connecticut that ended in a 56-53 final score.

Providence has had an exciting roller-coaster season, but it can challenge mostly anyone in college basketball on its best day. Unfortunately, the Friars come into this one off a loss to St John's. 

What's the Best Bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Providence vs. Creighton on Tuesday, February 14. 

Creighton vs Providence best odds

Creighton vs Providence picks and predictions

There's no denying that Providence has the goods to pull this one off. 

When the two teams met earlier this season, it lost to Creighton by six, but was vastly competitive and, had it had some different bounces, could have won the game. However, it's worth mentioning that the Creighton team the Friars faced then was different from the one they are facing now. 

That Bluejays team was rattled, had a 10-8 record after sky-high preseason expectations, and didn't know if it would make the tournament. This one? It's playing with a swagger like it can't be beaten. This pick has almost become contrarian based on the public love I've seen for the Friars. However, I'm rolling with Creighton today as my Best Bet. 

Historically you wouldn't list the Bluejays' defense as the reason for backing them, but that's precisely the case today (and it's been the story most of the season). The Providence DNA is something the Bluejays offer counters for. 

At their best, the Friars run when they can and get into good opportunities to score in transition. Transition scoring accounts for 18% of their offense, and they are highly effective when they can run. 

The only problem for them with that is that Creighton is better in nearly every way when it comes to transition defense. While the Friars are averaging 1.1 points per possession in transition, Creighton is holding opponents to .90 PPP. This is the best transition defense in the Big East in terms of PPP. The two that follow are Marquette and St. Johns. Providence is a combined 1-3 against the Top 3 teams in transition defense since the start of the new year.

Where else can Creighton slow down the Providence offense? At the rim. The Jays have been a different team since Ryan Kalkbrenner returned. Providence scored just four points on post-ups against them in the first matchup in a game where Kalkbrenner truly looked healthy. That's significant. Bryce Hopkins and post-up sets are a large part of the Friars' half-court offense, and when you can slow it down, you have an excellent chance to beat them. They can do that tonight.

Creighton ranks above average in both opponent two-point field goal percentage and opponent field goal percentage at the rim. These numbers have shot up since the start of the year, suggesting that Kalkbrenner being at his best has been a significant reason. In addition, the Jays are coming off a game in which they held one of the best big men in the Big East, Adama Songo, to a conference-low 41% shooting from the field. 

I feel good about Creighton's offense, but it's the defense that I expect to make the difference. So, in a game where Providence has attracted tons of public love, let's zig a little and roll with one of the hottest teams in college basketball to keep rolling.

My best bet: Creighton moneyline (-113 at FanDuel)

Creighton vs Providence spread analysis

As we noted above, we are on the Jays tonight. 

I wouldn't be shocked if Providence won the game (given the spot), but the value we're getting on such a hot team is too much to pass up. I spoke a ton about the defense and why it has a favorable matchup. However, we shouldn't sleep on the Creighton offense. It can be dominant; it ranks just outside the Top 30 in KenPom's offensive efficiency and has a decent matchup tonight. 

Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander, and Ryan Nembhard all grade out as excellent spot-up shooters per Synergy. That's been a weakness for Providence all season — they've been a little unlucky, but they've still allowed over 50% shooting on spot-up sets. That can be a devastating blow when facing a team like Creighton.

Creighton vs Providence Over/Under analysis

I've gone back and forth on this one, which generally means I shouldn't press on a side, and I won't. Multiple scenarios could take place to force this either way. My projections plotted a total of right around 145. That definitely points in one direction, and that's the Over. However, I think there's a decent chance that the Jays' defense could slow down Providence on one end, and if they are missing open jump shots (always possible), then this one will soar Under.

Looking at trends for a potential side and you'll see some love for the Under. It’s 5-1 in the last six games that Creighton’s played against a team with a winning record. In addition, the Under is 4-1 in Creighton's last five games after a win. 

Creighton vs Providence betting trend to know

Creighton is 4-1 ATS in its last five games against a team with a winning record. Find more college basketball betting trends for Creighton vs. Providence.

Creighton vs Providence game info

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