The Creighton Bluejays will look to finish off an improbable run in the Big East Tournament against the Villanova Wildcats.
The Bluejays have to play without one of their star guards in Ryan Nembhard due to injury but have found a way as of late, defeating Marquette and Providence in the Big East Tournament by double digits in each game.
Meanwhile, Villanova has had to play some hard-fought basketball games, escaping St. John’s and UConn in each of its Big East Tournament games.
Can Creighton finish off the shocking tournament run? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the Creighton Bluejays vs. Villanova Wildcats.
Creighton vs Villanova odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Villanova Wildcats opened as a 7.5-point favorite but have since dropped to -6.5 at most outlets. The total has also changed from 131 at opening to 129.5 across the board.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Creighton vs Villanova predictions
Predictions made on 3/12/2022 at 8:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Creighton vs Villanova game info
• Location: Madison Square Garden, New York City, NY
• Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX
Creighton vs Villanova betting preview
Injuries
Creighton: Ryan Nembhard G (Out), Shereef Mitchell G (Out).
Villanova: Nnanna Nkoku F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bluejays are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Creighton vs. Villanova.
Creighton vs Villanova picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Creighton Bluejays have been playing extremely good basketball recently. The offense has been a bit inconsistent this year, but everything is coming together in the Big East Tournament.
To get to the Big East Finals, Creighton just defeated the number one seed in Providence and won easily, 85-58.
Creighton was phenomenal in every area during that game and deserves a shot at the Big East title.
The Bluejays have shot the ball well throughout the season. Creighton has scored nearly 54% of shots inside the arc but just 31.5% from deep this season. The Bluejays also don’t get to the line at a high rate and turn the ball over 20.6% of the time, which will hurt against a team like Villanova.
Creighton also won’t be very active on the offensive glass, but the Bluejays still earn 28.6% offensive rebounds. There will be some second-chance opportunities.
On the other hand, Villanova has held teams to 31.8% from deep and 48% from inside the arc. The Wildcats also limit foul shooting at a solid rate but don’t earn a high amount of turnovers or hold teams from offensive rebounds at a better rate than average.
Meanwhile, Villanova has been above average in a lot of categories offensively. The Wildcats are shooting 36.3% from deep and 50.5% from inside the arc. On the offensive glass, the Wildcats are earning 31.2% of offensive rebounds and Villanova will also rarely turn the ball over, giving the ball away just 15.5% of the time.
Villanova will get shots up in this game. However, getting good shots will be the hard part. Creighton is holding teams to 32% from deep and 43.5% from inside the arc. Just like Villanova, Creighton limits foul shots at an extreme rate but won’t earn many turnovers.
Therefore, I like Creighton’s defense to put in work tonight and at least keep the game close.
Prediction: Creighton +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Creighton’s defense just held Providence to 58 points and before that held Marquette to just 63 points. The Bluejays will make teams earn points every possession because those teams won’t be bailed out and allowed to get to the line at will.
Villanova is essentially the same way. The Wildcats limit fouls and force tough shots throughout the game. Plus, on the offensive end, Villanova is using 19.6 seconds per possession this season.
That’s a lot of time between possessions. Let that time tick and we’ll take the Under.
Prediction: Under 129.5 (-110)
Best bet
I’m sticking with Creighton and the points. Earlier, we could’ve got it at +7.5 but now we’ll have to settle for +6.5.
In a championship game, you always expect a close, wire-to-wire game. Creighton’s defense has been up to the challenge during the tournament and continues to shoot at a high rate while limiting turnovers.
Things look bright for Creighton while Villanova had to escape two tough matchups with St. John’s and UConn. At this point, you’d have to imagine Villanova is gassed.
Pick: Creighton +6.5 (-110)
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