After making a run all the way to the Final Four last year, the UCLA Bruins are college basketball betting favorites by nearly 20 points in their season opener against the Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners.
Bruins head coach Mick Cronin has his work cut out for him this year, as the expectations are high in Los Angeles — UCLA is one of the favorites to win the championship, so the Bruins won’t be sneaking up on anybody.
Will Cronin’s crew earn a blowout win at Pauley Pavilion to start the year? Find out in our Cal State Bakersfield vs. UCLA picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 9.
CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
UCLA was a 19-point favorite when these odds first hit the betting market, but the Bruins are now favored by 20.5 points at the time of writing, as the public is riding with UCLA in this one and the line is moving with it. The total, meanwhile, has remained unchanged since opening at 135.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA predictions
Predictions made on 11/9/2021 at 12:41 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA game info
• Location: Pauley Pavillion, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Tuesday, November 9, 2021
• Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: PAC12
CSU Bakersfield at UCLA betting preview
Injuries
CSU Bakersfield: None to report.
UCLA: Jaylen Clark G (Questionable), Mac Etienne C (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
UCLA is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for CSU Bakersfield vs. UCLA.
CSU Bakersfield vs UCLA picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Last season, UCLA finished the year with the 13th-best adjusted efficiency margin (according to KenPom.com) in all of college basketball. It was a second-half surge and NCAA Tournament run that ultimately showed us just how good this Bruins team could be, but Cronin’s team will now enter the year with some big-time expectations.
UCLA returns starters Tyger Campbell, Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez, and Cody Riley from last year’s team, plus the Bruins also bolstered their team with the additions of five-star recruit Peyton Watson — who will be in the starting lineup and is firmly in the mix to be a Top-10 NBA Draft pick next year — and graduate transfer Myles Johnson.
Riley was a rock-solid big for Cronin’s team last year, but he’s a bit undersized and can use somebody to give him a breather every now and then. Last year, the Bruins didn’t have a serviceable backup big — but Johnson fills that void as the 6-foot-10 center averaged 8.0 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 2.4 rebounds per game for Rutgers last season.
This UCLA team took things to another level in March Madness by getting the most out of every offensive possession and really locking in on defense. The group formed an identity during that run and the standard is now set for the Bruins.
Look for them to start this season off with a dominant performance against a CSU Bakersfield team that might struggle to score points as last year’s leading scorer, Taze Moore, transferred to play his final season of college basketball at the University of Houston. He averaged 12.2 points per game last year — and was the only player to average double figures for the Roadrunners.
With Moore gone, they will be relying heavily on Shaun Williams to make a massive leap. Williams averaged 9.3 points, 3.1 assists, and 2.3 rebounds per game last season but a lot of the attention will be on him in this one. He wasn’t very efficient a year ago and it won’t be all that easy for him to get good looks against the Bruins. Justin Edler-Davis also averaged 9.3 points per game last year, so he’s another player to keep an eye on.
However, like Williams, UCLA will be keying in on him to make sure that somebody else on the Roadrunners beats them.
Prediction: UCLA -20.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Under Cronin, the Over has hit in three of the four games in which UCLA has played as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. It’s also 2-0-1 in games in which the Roadrunners have been underdogs of 18.5 to 24 points on the road under head coach Rod Barnes.
Last year, UCLA averaged 72.5 points per game while CSU Bakersfield averaged 69.7. The Bruins are going to put up a relatively high number in this game, as Juzang and Jaquez are two unbelievable offensive players.
At the same time, UCLA is expecting big things from Watson, who lacks polish as a scorer but is extremely talented. The Bruins are just going to need some help from the Roadrunners.
If they score 60 — which they are definitely capable of doing — Over bettors would be in good shape.
Prediction: Over 135.5 (-110)
Best bet
The Bruins have no excuse not to get off to a good start in this game, as they’re essentially running last year back. In fact, this year’s UCLA team should be better than the one Cronin had last year.
Chris Smith was one of the best wings on the Bruins last year, but he tore his ACL and wasn’t even playing for the Bruins in the second half of the season. Now, UCLA has an uber-talented wing in Watson to take pressure off of Juzang and Jacquez.
If there are any adjustments to be made this year, it’s finding a way to get Watson involved. However, that’s not something that should be a massive issue. All in all, this Bruins defense is smothering and they also have a ton of talent on the offensive end — in addition to some real depth, which they lacked a year ago.
CSU Bakersfield might not be miserable this season, but the team certainly doesn’t have anywhere near the talent that UCLA has. Also, the fans in Pauley Pavilion should be fired up to shower this team with love after what they did last season.
That energy in the stadium is part of the reason this game is likely to get out of hand.
Pick: UCLA -20.5 (-110)
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