Dayton vs Saint Louis Odds, Picks and Predictions: Billikens Rotations Runs Deep

The Dayton Flyers and Saint Louis Billikens will wrap up their regular season with a showdown at Chaifetz Arena on Friday night.

These have been two of the best teams in the Atlantic-10 conference, with just one game separating the second-place Flyers from the Billikens.

A close game is expected tonight, with college basketball odds opening with the Flyers as 1.5-point road favorites. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Dayton vs. Saint Louis on March 3. 

Dayton vs Saint Louis best odds

Dayton vs Saint Louis picks and predictions

Although the Dayton Flyers cruised by the Saint Louis Billikens when these teams clashed three weeks ago, home-court advantage should be enough to sway the rematch toward the Billikens.

Although the Billikens have gone 4-5 straight up and 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine games, four of those defeats came on the road. They are 14-3 at home with an average scoring margin of plus-9.3 points per game. Their only defeat at Chaifetz Arena in conference play came against a VCU team that has already clinched first place in the A-10. 

Meanwhile, the Flyers have gone 5-5 on the road this season and have suffered road defeats in conference play to George Washington, George Mason, St. Bonaventure, and Rhode Island — none of whom are as good as Saint Louis. 

The Flyers have seen their shooting percentages drop off a cliff away from home. They boast an incredible 58.1 EFG% at home but that number drops to 49.5% on the road. That's ideal for a Saint Louis squad that allows a 50.4 EFG% on the road but tightens up with an opponent effective field goal percentage of 46.3% at home.

Both teams also pick up fouls and turn the ball over at a higher rate on the road than at home. Back the Billikens in front of a raucous home crowd on senior night.

My best bet: Saint Louis moneyline (+104 at Pinnacle)

Dayton vs Saint Louis spread analysis

The Flyers are fresh off a 77-53 beatdown of La Salle and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games. That includes a February 10 showdown against the Billikens where they won by 14 points at home. The Flyers shot 48% from the floor while holding the Billikens to 38% shooting in that contest, and they also had a 32-24 edge on the glass.

DaRon Holmes II leads Dayton with 18.2 points and 1.8 blocks per game while adding 7.9 rebounds per game. With the 6-10 Holmes doing damage alongside 6-foot-8 Toumani Camara (13.9 ppg, 8.7 rpg) and 6-foot-9 Mustapha Amzil (9.0 ppg, 4.8 rpg), the Flyers have one of the biggest lineups in college hoops. 

Thanks to that length, the Flyers rank 19th in the country in rebound rate (53.8%). They've excelled on both ends of the floor and lead the conference in both field goal percentage (49.6%) and opponent field goal percentage (40.6%) in A-10 play. 

Despite having less size than Dayton, the Billikens compete hard on the glass and are 41st in the country in rebound rate (52.9%) thanks to forward Francis Okoro (conference-high 8.8 rpg). They are just behind the Flyers with a 48.7 FG% in conference play and their opponent field goal percentage of 43% ranks third. 

Saint Louis has a deep rotation with multiple players that can score from anywhere on the floor. Point guard Yuri Collins leads the country with 10.1 assists per game while adding 11.3 ppg. He does a great job of setting up Gibson Jimerson (14.2 ppg), Javonte Perkins (10.9 ppg), and Javon Pickett (9.8 ppg).

Dayton vs Saint Louis Over/Under analysis

Although the Flyers are ninth in the country in scoring defense (60.7 ppg) and seventh in opponent field goal percentage (39.1%), there is reason to consider the Over 137 tonight. Keep in mind that those numbers have ticked up slightly in conference play and while they like to slow the pace of the game down to a crawl, the Billikens prefer to push the tempo. 

Neither team attempts a high volume of three-pointers, but they are both very efficient on the shots they do take. Dayton currently boasts a 39.7 3PT% in conference play and Saint Louis is shooting at a 38.7% clip. 

Both teams rarely force turnovers either, with the Flyers 297th in opponent turnover rate (15.9%) and the Billikens ranking 335th (15%). 

Although Dayton's offense had some issues earlier this season, that was partially due to injuries to its two best guards Kobe Elvis (8.4 ppg, 2.8 apg) and Malachi Smith (7.7 ppg, 5.8 apg). With the Flyers' two top ball handlers back in the lineup last month, they were far more consistent with the ball. 

Dayton vs Saint Louis betting trend to know

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these conference foes. Find more college basketball betting trends for Dayton vs. Saint Louis.

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