The Coastal Athletic Association will crown its NCAA Tournament participant when the Delaware Blue Hens and UNC Wilmington Seahawks face off tonight.
Delaware has made an improbable run and looks to crash the Big Dance with a stolen bid. UNC Wilmington narrowly escaped in the semifinals after blowing a substantial lead, but are just 40 minutes away from clinching a bid of their own.
My Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington predictions and college basketball picks for the CAA Championship on Tuesday, March 11, explain why it’s wise to back the sharpshooting Blue Hens to keep this one close, at least early on.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington prediction
Who will win Delaware vs UNC Wilmington?
Delaware was missing two players the first time it played UNC Wilmington this season, losing by 10 at home. Then, UNC Wilmington’s final home game of the season saw a 30-point beatdown over Delaware, where those same two players combined for just 19 minutes.
The Blue Hens have a full complement of players, but they’re going to start running on fumes in the second half. The Seahawks will have to fight, just as they did in the semis to beat College of Charleston, but I like them to outlast Delaware and clinch their spot in the NCAA Tournament.
My best bet
Delaware +5 1H (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Delaware Blue Hens have taken a liking to CareFirst Arena. And whether it’s soft rims, favorable sightlines, or just shooters getting hot at just the right time, they’ve been firing from distance in the CAA Tournament.
One of the better 3-point shooting teams on the season, the Blue Hens have upped their output over the last three games of the conference tournament. They put on a show against William & Mary in the quarterfinals, connecting on an eye-opening 18 of 29 from beyond the arc. Against Towson in the semis, they buried another nine treys from 20 attempts.
In four games in the tourney, the Blue Hens are shooting 48.3% from deep. John Camden has hit 13 of 25 from deep, while Erik Timko has been consistently scorching the nets going 13 of 23, with at least three makes in each game.
For the UNC Wilmington Seahawks, defending the perimeter was a problem against College of Charleston in the semis. While they limited the Cougars to just 25% shooting inside the arc, the Seahawks gave up 14 3-pointers on 31 attempts as it nearly cost them the chance at the title.
And while they limited Delaware in both the regular season meetings to a combined 15 made treys from 47 attempts, it’s worth noting that Timko missed the first game and played just nine minutes in the second. It’s also important to note that although Wilmington won both regular season contests, both games were close heading into the final five minutes of the first half.
Delaware ranks 12th nationally in shot making and 14th in spacing according to ShotQualityBets, while UNC Wilmington ranks 179th and 276th, respectively, in those metrics on defense. With the way they’re shooting the ball right now, the Blue Hens can put pressure on a Seahawk defense that, quite frankly, isn’t that great.
The problem for Delaware this season has been its own defensive woes. But there’s been marked improvement so far in the tournament. After allowing 1.22 points per possession in the opener against Stony Brook, Delaware allowed less than 1.00 PPP against Campbell and against William & Mary.
While Towson notched 1.05 PPP in the semis, it was still far better than what they’d allowed during the conference slate. And UNCW ranks in the 260s in adjusted tempo, which means fatigue may not set in as quickly as it would if this were a high-paced game.
That said, fatigue does worry me. This will be Delaware’s fifth game in five days, and for that reason I’m staying away from the full-game spread. Instead, I’ll back the Blue Hens to keep things much closer in the first half than in the previous two meetings, and take their Cinderella run into the final 20 minutes with a chance to win.
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington same-game parlay (SGP)
Delaware +5 1H
Over 148.5
Cavan Reilly Over 1.5 made 3-pointers
With Delaware having two key players back in the fold, I’m expecting more points than we got in the two games this season. The 30-point win to end the regular season for the Seahawks saw a total of 146 points scored, and there were 144 in the first meeting.
With the Blue Hens shooting it well from outside, and the fouls that will inevitably be called as the losing team tries to extend the game, this should push past the 150-point mark.
Cavan Reilly is another player who has been enjoying his new environment this week. He’s connected on multiple 3-point shots in three straight games and in five of his last six, while shooting 50% from downtown in CareFirst Arena. He’ll take advantage of the attention given to Camden and Timko and bury another pair.
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Delaware vs UNC Wilmington odds
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington live odds
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington opening odds
- Spread: Delaware +8.5 | UNC Wilmington -8.5
- Moneyline: Delaware +281 | UNC Wilmington -346
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 | Under 148.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington betting trend to know
Delaware has hit the 1H Over in 25 of its last 33 games (+15.75 Units / 42% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Delaware vs. UNC Wilmington.
How to watch Delaware vs UNC Wilmington
| Location | CareFirst Arena, Washington, D.C. |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
Delaware vs UNC Wilmington key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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