Dixie State vs Gonzaga Picks and Predictions: Improved DSU Good Enough To Cover 40-point Spread

The 2021-22 college basketball season tips off on Tuesday with the No. 1 ranked team in the nation, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, hosting the Dixie State Trailblazers.

The Zags enter this season as national championship favorites while the Trailblazers will be playing in just their second year at the Division-I level. College basketball betting lines for this game reflect the completely different expectations for both programs with Gonzaga coming in as a whopping 40-point favorite.

Here are our best free Dixie State vs. Gonzaga picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 9 with tipoff at 9 p.m. ET.

Dixie State vs Gonzaga odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

This line opened with Gonzaga at -40.5 with the Over/Under at 165. Early money has come in on Dixie State and the Over, shifting the lines slightly to -40 and 165.5. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Dixie State vs Gonzaga predictions

• Prediction: Dixie State +40 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 165.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Dixie State First half team total Over 28.5 (-120)

Predictions made on 11/09/2021 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Dixie State vs Gonzaga game info

• Location: McCarthey Athletic Center, Spokane, WA
• Date: Tuesday, November 9, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Root Sports NW

Dixie State at Gonzaga betting preview

Injuries

Dixie State: None.
Gonzaga: Martynas Arlauskas F(Questionable), Dominick Harris G (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Trailblazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Dixie State vs. Gonzaga.

Dixie State vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Gonzaga rolled through its schedule last season, going unbeaten... until the national championship game where it fell to Baylor. Going 31-1 with an average scoring margin of plus-21.3 points per game is nothing to be ashamed about but Gonzaga knows it has unfinished business.

After years of excelling with upperclassmen, recruits that flew under the radar, and international players, this year's edition of the Zags features one of the premier recruiting classes in the nation, headlined by Chet Holmgren.

Holmgren is a rail-thin seven-footer with the handles and shooting ability of a guard combined with the shot-blocking ability of an impact big. That unicorn skill-set made the Minnesota local the consensus top recruit in the nation while the Zags also signed guards Hunter Sallis and Nolan Hickman, who were both Top-25 overall recruits according to ESPN. 

Those freshmen will join Iowa State transfer (and third-team All-Big 12 guard) Rasir Bolton, last year's leading scorer Drew Timme (19 ppg on 65.5 percent shooting), and veterans Andrew Nembhard and Anton Watson to form the nucleus of this squad.

The Trailblazers had a rough introductory season in the WAC last year, going 8-13 and struggling when playing on back-to-back nights during the pandemic-influenced schedule. However, they were more competitive down the stretch and should be better equipped to handle Div 1 competition this time around. 

Dixie State returns their four highest scorers from a year ago, led by Cameron Gooden (13.1 points and 3.2 assists per game) and Hunter Schofield (12.7 ppg). They also get back a pair of key reserves in Isaiah Pope and Andre Mulibea and added forward Kolby Lee from BYU through the transfer portal.

These teams actually faced off last season in Spokane with the Bulldogs trampling Dixie State 112-67, covering the 37.5-point spread the oddsmakers laid in front of them. However, the Zags didn't typically cover such massive lines, going just 5-9 ATS when favored by more than 20 points.

While Gonzaga should be big faves in this contest, you can't lose the All-WCC Player of the Year in Corey Kispert, the fifth-overall selection in the NBA draft in Jalen Suggs, and another All-WCC first-team player in Joel Ayayi and not be affected in some way. it's also worth mentioning that Gonzaga coach Mark Few won't be on the sidelines as he is serving a suspension for DUI. It won't be as easy for the Zags to cover against the Trailblazers this time around. 

Prediction: Dixie State +40 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

At 165.5 this total is easily the biggest on the betting board. But if any team can take that number down it's the Zags, who opened last season by dropping 102 points on a ranked Kansas team (while allowing 90 points themselves).

Gonzaga loves to play fast and loose and easily led the nation with 91 ppg and 54.9 percent shooting from the field last season. While they have new faces in Holmgren, Sallis, and Hickman, they should be able to produce on offense from the get-go and will likely take longer to adjust to defending at the college level.

The Trailblazers weren't the most efficient team on offense last season but the continuity of having virtually their entire rotation back will be a big help. And even without shooting at the best clip, they played at a breakneck pace, ranking 15th in the country in adjusted tempo, according to KenPom.

The Zags were seventh in the nation in adjusted tempo last year and have gone 40-19 O/U in their last 59 games overall. 

Prediction: Over 165.5 (-110)

Best Bet

As dominant as the Zags were last year, the fast pace they play at ensures that opponents get plenty of possessions as well. Gonzaga allowed 32.4 ppg during the first half of games last season and coincidently Dixie State scored exactly 32.4 first-half ppg.

When these two teams previously tangled back on December 29, the Trailblazers put up 38 points during the first 20 minutes.

Dixie State should be even better on offense this time around and the Bulldogs might have some hiccups on the defensive end of the floor early with less experienced players and no Few to make adjustments. With this number set at a relatively low 28.5, grab the Over. 

Pick: Dixie State First half team total Over 28.5 (-120)

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