Winners of four straight, the seventh-ranked Duke Blue Devils will make their first-ever visit to Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, to battle the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Ranked as high as 14th, Arkansas is still a formidable foe that’s fallen out of the Top 25 after dropping three of its last four.
The Blue Devils are 4.5-point favorites in the college basketball odds.
Read below for my free college basketball picks and best bet in this ACC/SEC Challenge matchup.
Duke vs Arkansas best odds
Duke vs Arkansas picks and predictions
It wasn’t pretty, but the Duke Blue Devils found a way to extend their win streak with an 80-62 win over Southern Indiana. Trailing by as many as 10 points, the Devils turned the second half into an extended run, outscoring the Screaming Eagles by 22 to win going away.
Duke’s offense has been a strong factor to start the season, as it ranks ninth in KenPom’s offensive efficiency metric, and its 84 points per game is a Top 40 mark in the NCAA. Center Kyle Filipowski has been leading the attack, averaging 18.8 points and eight rebounds per game — both team highs — while shooting a crisp 56% from the floor.
The defense has been solid too, with only one team — the 12th-ranked Arizona Wildcats — topping 70+ points in its lone loss on the season. The Blue Devils are allowing 64.2 points per game, which is 66th in the nation, and rank 27th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating.
The Arkansas Razorbacks return from the Battle 4 Atlantis having dropped two straight to a pair of very good programs. After a nice double OT win over Stanford, they lost 84-79 to Memphis before leaving the Bahamas with an 87-72 loss to 14th-ranked North Carolina.
The Razorbacks could also be down one of their key pieces, as guard Tramon Mark had to be stretchered off with a back injury against Carolina. Mark, the team’s leading scorer at 18.4 points per game, had been working on a career-best 34 points, shooting a sparkling 13-for-17 from the field. Mark’s backcourt mate Khalif Battle is second in team scoring, putting up 15 points per game while hitting 43.3% from 3-point range.
On the season, the ‘Hogs rank 49th at KenPom and score plenty enough. Their 80.7 points per game ranks 79th in the NCAA. They’ve been living at the stripe, attempting 28.9 free throws per contest, which is sixth in the nation. While they rank 39th in defensive efficiency at KenPom, they are surrendering 75.3 points per game, which is a lowly 270th in the nation.
Offense should reign supreme tonight. Six of Arkansas’ seven games have hit the Over this season, and the last three have all topped this 149.5 line.
This will be the second-highest total the Dukies have had in six games, and they’ve gone Over in half of their matchups.
My best bet: Over 149.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Duke vs Arkansas same-game parlay
Over 149.5
Duke team total Over 80.5
Duke moneyline
We’re tacking on two more bets to make a same-game parlay, with a focus on the Blue Devils.
Duke has scored at least 80 points in each of its last three and has averaged 88.3 over that stretch. Its lowest output in a win was 74 vs. 18th-ranked Michigan State.
Arkansas has allowed both Memphis and UNC to go for 80+, and the fewest points the Razorbacks have allowed in a loss is 78 to lowly UNC Greensboro.
Mark being dinged up takes a little bite out of Arkansas’ attack, and while I think the home crowd should add some juice to the Razorbacks’ attack, red flags are flying with their poor record against the spread. So we’ll stick to the moneyline: the better team here is Duke, and it should prevail.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Arkansas spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread started at Duke -3.5 and has climbed up as high as 5.5 points at a number of sportsbooks.
The Blue Devils' last three games have seen the betting lines at least 25 points or higher, and they’ve gone just 1-2 against the spread. They’ve had two games under the six-point margin this season, covering against Michigan State as 4.5-point favorites, though losing to Arizona when favored by 5.5.
It’s been a struggle for Arkansas, who is just 1-6-0 ATS, having failed to cover in six straight, topping only Alcorn State in its season opener as 28.5-point favorites.
As for the total, it has not dipped under 148.5 points, settling at most books at 149.5.
Duke vs Arkansas betting trend to know
Arkansas has won 38 of its last 39 games against non-Conference opponents at Bud Walton Arena. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Arkansas.
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Duke vs Arkansas game info
| Location: | Bud Walton Arena, Fayetteville, AR |
| Date: | Wednesday, November 29, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs Arkansas key injuries
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