Duke vs Gonzaga Picks and Predictions: Zags' Talent Too Thorough

It seems like every week there’s a new “Game of the Week.” However, tonight might actually be the one. The Duke Blue Devils will take on the Gonzaga Bulldogs in a Top-5 matchup between two undefeated powerhouses. 

The Bulldogs have already flexed their muscles on Texas, winning by 12, and UCLA, winning by 20. Meanwhile, Duke defeated Kentucky to start the season but has been feasting on mediocre teams every since.

Will Duke respond well against the top team in the nation? Here are our Duke vs. Gonzaga college basketball picks and predictions for Friday, November 26. 

Duke vs Gonzaga odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Gonzaga opened as an 8.5-point favorite but has moved down to a 7.5-point favorite since. 

The total has also adjusted from opening at 155.5 and is now sitting as low as 153 at some outlets. There are books holding a 153, 153.5, 154, and 154.5, so shop around if you’re looking to bet the total. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Duke vs Gonzaga predictions

• Prediction: Gonzaga -7.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 153 (-110)
• Best bet: Over 153 (-110)

Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Duke vs Gonzaga game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Duke at Gonzaga betting preview

Injuries

Duke: Michael Savarino G (Questionable)
Gonzaga: Dominick Harris G (Out) 

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Blue Devils are 1-8 ATS in their last nine after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Gonzaga.

Duke vs Gonzaga picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

This is going to be a fun one. Gonzaga is the top-rated offense in the nation and can really do no wrong. The Bulldogs average 91.5 points per game while shooting a 62.2 percent effective field goal percentage. They’ve limited turnovers to 16.4 percent and dominate the offensive glass with 36.7 percent offensive rebounds. 

Inside the arc, Gonzaga is averaging 67.2 percent from the field. The Bulldogs have also shot 35.8 percent from the three-point line, which is still above average.  

The Bulldogs have nearly five players in double figures, but if any of these players got more minutes, those numbers would rise. Drew Timme is averaging the most minutes for Gonzaga, with 26.2 minutes per game. In those minutes, he’s averaging 18.7 points along with six rebounds. Against teams like Duke, you can expect more minutes from the starting lineup. Mostly, these guys sit for half of the second half of blowouts after dominating mediocre talent. 

Duke, on the other hand, is shooting a 55.9 percent effective field goal percentage while limiting turnovers to 12.4 percent. The Blue Devils are fantastic on the offensive end, except for the fact that Duke struggles to get to the line at a solid rate. Going up against a disciplined Gonzaga team won’t help its case in trying to get to the line. 

Still, Duke is shooting 58.2 percent from inside and 33.6 percent from beyond the arc. Those are good enough numbers with the way Duke has played defensively this season.

The Blue Devils and Gonzaga are both extremely young. However, Gonzaga ultimately looks like the better team. It’s already run UCLA and Texas out of town and will now get the same opportunity against Duke.

Prediction: Gonzaga -7.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Both of these offenses move at a high pace. Gonzaga is using an average possession length of 15.1 seconds while Duke clocks in at 16.5 seconds. While both of these offenses move quickly, they’re both extremely efficient. 

Gonzaga has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 122.2 while Duke has a 113.6 number, both currently in the Top 10 in that category. 

So far, Duke games haven’t had much fouling, but against Gonzaga, that will likely change. Gonzaga is aggressive on the offensive end and has done well getting to the line. And while this isn’t a rivalry game, the intensity is going to be up. Let’s face it: Both these teams want this game badly. Both are undefeated and could really use this as a resume-builder later in March. 

So, I’ll take the over at 153. 

Prediction: Over 153 (-110)

Best bet

I’ll stick with the Over 153 as my best bet. Gonzaga is averaging 91.5 points per game and Duke is averaging 85.8 points per game. With both teams moving at a fast pace, scoring points shouldn’t be a problem. 

We’re all going to anticipate more fouls in this game between Duke and Gonzaga. So far, we haven’t seen many fouls in Duke games, but that should change against Gonzaga. It’s a lot harder to defend the Bulldogs compared to Lafayette, for example. 

Grab the Over at 153 while some books still have it.

Pick: Over 153 (-110)

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