Duke vs Miami ACC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Giving Devils Their Due

The Miami Hurricanes beat the Boston College Eagles on a layup at the buzzer while the Duke Blue Devils earned a tight win over the Syracuse Orange on Thursday. These two teams now meet in the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. 

Will the Hurricanes give the Blue Devils a game at the Barclays Center? Our college basketball betting picks and predictions should have you covered with everything you need to bet this game between Miami and Duke.

Duke vs Miami odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Miami opened as a 9-point underdog against Duke despite beating the Blue Devils on their own home court back in January. Meanwhile, the total opened at 151 and can be found at 150.5 elsewhere at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Duke vs Miami predictions

• Prediction: Miami +9 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 151 (-110)
• Best bet: Miami +9 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Duke vs Miami game info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Friday, March 11, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Duke vs Miami betting preview

Injuries

Duke: No injuries to report.
Miami: Harlond Beverly G (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Miami is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games following an against-the-spread loss. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Miami.

Duke vs Miami picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Miami has actually won and covered in each of its last two games against Duke, and one of those victories came at Cameron Indoor Stadium on January 8. The Hurricanes were 15-point underdogs in that game and ended up earning a 76-74 victory. 

This Miami team might not have a great public reputation, but there’s a lot of talent in place. Charlie Moore is one of the better floor generals in the nation, while Kameron McGusty, Isaiah Wong, and Jordan Miller are all scoring threats on the wing. Those four players each scored in double figures in Thursday's win over Boston College and should all be ready to go against Duke. Meanwhile, Sam Waardenburg is a stretch five for the Hurricanes, which could come in handy against the Blue Devils. If he’s out on the perimeter, that will pull Mark Williams — one of college basketball’s best rim protectors — away from the basket. That’ll open up lanes for Miami. 

For as loaded as Duke’s starting five is, the team has not been all that impressive lately. After losing at home as a double-digit favorite against the North Carolina Tar Heels on Senior Night, the team then struggled to put Syracuse away with its best player missing. Duke has now failed to cover in two straight games, and the team is laying a high number of points versus Miami. 

The Blue Devils should win this game outright, but it’s hard to see them blowing the Hurricanes away. Miami is a well-coached team with a good amount of shot-making prowess. The Hurricanes also like being the underdogs, as they are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS as dogs this year. 

Prediction: Miami +9 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These teams didn’t go Over the total when they met in the regular season, but they did combine to score 150 points. They had also gone Over in each of their previous three meetings, so you can safely say that there are fireworks whenever these teams clash. Don’t expect this game to be much different than those others as offense is the calling card for both of these programs right now.

While Duke is fifth in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com), Miami isn’t far behind at 18th. With that, you should be able to count on both teams to score a lot of points. 

The Over is also now 5-0 in Miami’s last five neutral-court games, and it’s also 5-1 in the team’s last six overall games. As for Duke, the Over has hit in each of the team’s last four and is 16-6 in the last 22 games the Blue Devils have played against teams with winning records. 

Prediction: Over 151 (-110)

Best bet

Not only has Duke failed to cover in its last two games against Miami, but the Blue Devils are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against teams with winning percentages of 60.0% or higher. Meanwhile, we’ve already mentioned how the Hurricanes thrive in an underdog role, and the team is also 5-1 ATS in its last six games following a no-cover. With that in mind, look for Miami to bounce back from a dicey performance against Boston College and put forth a much better effort here. 

The Blue Devils' struggling defense makes it even tougher to pass on the Hurricanes. Duke has given up a total of 173 points over its last two games, and the team now faces a potent Miami offense. The Hurricanes should have no trouble putting up points and they should be able to get enough stops to make this a tight game down the stretch.  

Pick: Miami +9 (-110)

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