The No. 2 ranked Duke Blue Devils take on the struggling Miami Hurricanes in tonight's NCAA basketball action.
The Blue Devils are massive 22.5-point road favorites and my Duke vs Miami predictions aren't shying away from laying the points on them.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this clash between the best and worst in the ACC on Tuesday, February 25 with tip at 7 p.m. ET.
Duke vs Miami prediction
My best bet
Duke -22.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Duke Blue Devils are 14-1 in their last 15 games with nine of those wins coming by more than 20 points. That includes an 89-54 beatdown of the Miami Hurricanes in Durham on January 14.
While the Hurricanes are 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games, don't forget they started off the season just 3-16 ATS. The Canes have just two wins against high-major foes all season and have been embarrassingly bad in their own end, ranking 336th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency.
They are well outside the Top 300 in opponent turnover rate (14.7%) and opponent 2-point percentage (56.1%) while sitting outside the Top 350 in opponent 3-point percentage (38.7%). They'll get torched inside and out by a Duke squad that ranks second in adjusted offense and has ramped up its scoring output lately, dropping more than 100 points in two of its last three games.
Miami has also struggled on offense and has been held to 68 points or less in each of its last three games. The Canes clearly haven't gotten over the early-season injury to point guard Nijel Pack and I don't see them getting anything going against Duke, who is fourth in the country in adjusted defense and second in opponent eFG% (44.2%).
It's tough to lay this many points on a visiting team in a conference showdown but Duke has road wins of 25+ points against Syracuse, Boston College, SMU, and Georgia Tech. With Miami clearly the worst team in the ACC, I don't see it putting up a better performance than those schools.
Cooper Flagg pick: Easy does it
My best bet
Cooper Flagg Under 20.5 points (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
Cooper Flagg leads Duke in points (19.5), rebounds (7.7), assists (4.0), steals (1.6), and blocks (1.1) per game. That said, his points total looks a tad too high tonight considering the likely narrative in this game.
The consensus first-overall pick in the upcoming NBA draft, Flagg has shown a tendency to pass more and come out of the game early in blowout wins, which given the 22.5-point spread here seems likely.
Flagg has scored fewer than 20 points in five of his last six games and is coming off a lopsided victory against Illinois where he played 23 minutes and took just 10 field-goal attempts. He also scored just 13 points on 11 FGA when the Blue Devils hammered Miami 89-54 back on January 14.
Duke vs Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Duke -22.5
Cooper Flagg Under 20.5 points
Kon Knueppel Over 1.5 threes
The Hurricanes are 362nd in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (38.7%) while ranking 339th at allowing high-quality threes per ShotQuality Bets. Forward Kon Knueppel leads Duke with 2.2 treys per game while knocking them down at a 38.3% clip. He also went 6-for-8 from deep against Miami when these teams faced off last month.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Duke vs Miami odds
Duke vs Miami live odds
Duke vs Miami opening odds
- Spread: Duke -22.5 | Miami +22.5
- Moneyline: Duke -8000 | Miami +1800
- Over/Under: Over 151 (-115) | Under 151 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Duke vs Miami betting trend to know
The Blue Devils are 7-2 ATS on the road this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. Miami.
How to watch Duke vs Miami
| Location | Watsco Center, Coral Gables, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, 2-25-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Duke vs Miami key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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