Duke vs North Carolina Picks and Predictions: Coach K Makes a Final Trip to Chapel Hill

When the No. 9 Duke Blue Devils (18-3, 8-2) face off with the North Carolina Tar Heels (16-6, 8-3), it will mark Coach K's final trip to Chapel Hill in his storied career. Both teams are winners of four straight, and the winner of Saturday's matchup will sit atop the ACC with a month left on the schedule. 

Can Paolo Banchero and the rest of the Blue Devils get Coach K one last win against their storied rivals or will the Tar Heels spoil the party?

Continue reading for our free college basketball picks and predictions for Duke vs. North Carolina on Saturday, February 5th for the best betting angles in this matchup.

Duke vs North Carolina odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Duke opened as 2-point favorites and has since been bet to -3. The total opened at 148 and has since moved up all the way to 152.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Duke vs North Carolina predictions

• Prediction: Duke -3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 152.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Duke -3 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Duke vs North Carolina game info

• Location: Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 6:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Duke at North Carolina betting preview

Injuries

Duke: No injuries to report.
North Carolina: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

North Carolina has played 5-2 to the Under in its last seven games with a total of 150 or higher. Duke has played 7-2 to the Under in its last nine. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. North Carolina.

Duke vs North Carolina picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Projected Top-3 pick Paolo Banchero (17.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG) has already turned in an incredibly impressive campaign as a true freshman and has an opportunity on Saturday to build on it if he can continue his recent success. He has struggled in the last two games (at least compared to his standards), shooting just 40.5% after shooting 58.3% in the previous four.

Banchero, along with the likes of Wendell Moore (14.2 PPG) and Trevor Keels (11.4 PPG), leads a Blue Devils offense that ranks 18th in the nation both in scoring (80.4 PPG) and in field goal percentage (48.3%), and 16th in KenPom offensive efficiency. They also take care of the ball exceptionally well, turning over the ball just 10.5 times per game (21st) and 15% of all possessions, which should hold up rather well against a Tar Heels defense that forces the third-fewest turnovers in the nation.

The Tar Heels offense is more than equipped to score with four players averaging 13+ points per game, whether it's brooding 6-foot-10, 240-pound Armando Bacot (16.5 PPG, 8.7 RPG), sophomore sharpshooters Caleb Love (15.3 PPG, 41.9%), and RJ Davis (13.9 PPG, 42.6% 3P%), or Oklahoma transfer Brady Manek (13.5 PPG, 5.6 RPG) who is surprisingly deadly from deep (39.2% on 5.7 attempts per game).

While North Carolina should not be overlooked, given that it ranks 38th overall in KenPom, it seemingly plays to a very particular ceiling. Outside of an admittedly very impressive 21-point win over Michigan, it has dropped games to all other noteworthy teams. That includes Kentucky (fourth in KenPom), Purdue (seventh), Tennessee (13th), and even the likes of Wake Forest (45th), Miami (64th), and Notre Dame (71st). Duke (12th) is seemingly above that ceiling and should bring Coach K the feel-good win on Saturday night.

Prediction: Duke -3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

While Duke and North Carolina are offensive powerhouses, the total of 152.5 is rather high, and betting against it after moving four points upwards is rarely a positive EV proposition. Duke has also played 7-2 to the Under in its last nine and North Carolina are 5-2 to the Under on the last seven totals that have been set at 150 or higher.

The total likely asks one of the two teams to score 80 or more, and Duke has done it just once in its last ten games, and the Tar Heels have done it just once in regulation in their last six. Duke brings in a 14th ranked KenPom defense that holds opponents to a 39.9% field goal percentage (36th) and just 64.7 points per game (65th). 

Prediction: Under 152.5 (-110)

Best bet

Although Coach K is 1-4 straight up in his last five games in Chapel Hill, Saturday's affair between these two rosters spells a different story. On top of the aforementioned scorers of Banchero, Moore, and Keels, freshman five-star AJ Griffin (9.0 PPG) has seemingly found his groove as of late, scoring 12.3 points per game in his last ten while shooting 52.4% from the field.

That Blue Devils cast will undoubtedly be too much to handle for a North Carolina defense that has given up 70+ four times in its last six games against lesser offenses. These teams have largely shown who they are and who they can and cannot beat, and Saturday's matinee between the two will be another example of that.

Pick: Duke -3 (-110)

Pages related to this topic