The No. 2 ranked Duke Blue Devils and North Carolina Tar Heels wrap up their regular season with a rivalry clash in Chapel Hill on Saturday.
Both teams have been filling up the hoop lately and my Duke vs. North Carolina predictions are betting on a shootout at Dean Smith Center tonight.
Here are my free college basketball picks for the Tobacco Road Rivalry on March 8.
Duke vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
Over 157.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The North Carolina Tar Heels have won six in a row while covering the spread in their last five. They were outside the Top 250 in 3-point percentage (32.3%) and offensive rebounding rate (27.8%) before that streak, but have a sizzling 47.8 3PT% while ranking 16th in offensive rebounding (39.1%) since.
That offensive improvement has been due to a lineup change with UNC now starting two bigs (Jae'lyn Withers alongside Ven Allen-Lubin), and the growth of five-star freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell.
That said, the Tar Heels have regressed on defense during that six-game win streak. UNC was 76th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency before that streak began and is just 124th in that metric since.
That's bad news against the Duke Blue Devils, who are second in the country in adjusted offense. The Blue Devils have been scoring at an absurd rate lately, averaging 97.7 ppg with an effective field goal percentage of 61.7% over their last six contests.
They've also quickened their pace over the last month, ranking 104th in adjusted tempo since the middle of February — a far cry from their sluggish half-court offense earlier in the season.
The Blue Devils have cashed the Over in six straight while the Tar Heels are 6-0-1 O/U in their previous seven. With both offenses surging and Duke playing fast and loose with the ball, bet the Over here.
Cooper Flagg pick: Mr. helper
My best bet
Cooper Flagg 5+ assists (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
Freshman phenom Cooper Flagg has lived up to lofty expectations this season. The National Player of the Year frontrunner is averaging 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game.
Flagg's scoring production has been inconsistent lately, but he's been filling up the stat sheet in other categories. He's dropped 5+ dimes in four of his last six games and had seven assists against UNC when these teams tangled on February 1.
North Carolina has to choose between double-teaming Flagg or trying to match up one-on-one. Since he's coming off a 28-point performance and dropped 21 points against them in the first meeting, expect the Tar Heels to swarm him, leading to open teammates he'll find.
Duke vs North Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 157.5
Cooper Flagg 5+ assists
Duke -9.5
The Blue Devils won 87-70 when these teams clashed in Durham last month. That game was more lopsided than the final score indicates since Duke was up 32 points with nine minutes remaining before taking its foot off the pedal.
There is a narrative that UNC will be more motivated since its playing at home and is on the bubble (-115 to make the NCAA Tournament). However, teams are usually locked in against their rivals and Duke still needs a win to clinch the ACC regular season championship.
The Tar Heels have looked great on their recent winning streak but played terrible teams in Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Virginia, NC State, and Syracuse. All those schools have sub-.500 records during conference play with the Wolfpack and Hurricanes being particularly awful.
The Tar Heels are just 1-10 against Quad 1 opponents and the last team they faced in the Top 50 of the KenPom ratings was Clemson, who destroyed them by 20 points. Their recent form against bad teams doesn't sway me, and I'm leaning towards laying the points with Duke in this SGP.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cash your ML bets quicker with bet365's early win payout
Take advantage of the early win payout at bet365, where any pre-game CBB moneyline bet gets paid out as a winner if your school goes up by 18+ points!
Learn more about this feature, and all of bet365's offerings, with our comprehensive bet365 review.
21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Duke vs North Carolina odds
Duke vs North Carolina live odds
Duke vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Duke -10.5 | North Carolina +10.5
- Moneyline: Duke -650 | North Carolina +475
- Over/Under: Over 157 | Under 157
Odds courtesy of bet365
Duke vs North Carolina betting trend to know
The Over is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings between these ACC rivals. Find more college basketball betting trends for Duke vs. North Carolina.
How to watch Duke vs North Carolina
| Location | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Saturday, 3-8-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Duke vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
