Duke vs Syracuse ACC Tournament Picks and Predictions: Orange Suffocate Blue Devils

The Syracuse Orange beat up on the Florida State Seminoles Wednesday, when Jim Boeheim’s team earned a 39-point win to advance to a matchup with the Duke Blue Devils in the ACC Tournament. Boeheim has never had a losing season in his career as a head coach, but that’ll be put to the ultimate test against an elite Duke team. 

Will the Orange flex their March muscles once again and find a way to upset the Blue Devils? Keep reading our free college basketball picks and predictions featuring Syracuse vs. Duke to find out. 

Duke vs Syracuse odds

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Before Buddy Boeheim was suspended for a game for punching an opponent in the stomach, Syracuse opened as an 11.5-point underdog. Now, the Orange are getting 13 in this meeting with Duke. Meanwhile, the total opened at 152 and is now listed at 151 elsewhere. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Duke vs Syracuse predictions

• Prediction: Syracuse +13 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 152 (-110)
• Best bet: Syracuse +13 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/9/2022 at 7:24 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Duke vs Syracuse game info

• Location: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Duke at Syracuse betting preview

Injuries

Duke: No injuries to report.
Syracuse: Buddy Boeheim F (Out), Benny Williams F (Out), John Bol Ajak C (Out), Jesse Edwards C (Out), Niko Ruffin G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Duke is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games after having allowed 90 points or more in its previous outing. Find more NCAA betting trends for Duke vs. Syracuse.

Duke vs Syracuse picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Syracuse is coming off one of its best performances of the entire year, as the Orange earned a 96-57 win over Florida State. Jim Boeheim’s group ended up closing as a 2.5-point underdog in that game, but it shouldn’t surprise anybody this team came to play in March. Now, they will look to give the Blue Devils a game, and the reality is they should be able to do just that. 

The Orange were ranked just 203rd in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency this year (all efficiency stats from KenPom.com), but it’s always a lot harder to play against Boeheim’s 2-3 zone in a tournament setting.

Their players have a little more adrenaline to move their feet, and opponents tighten up when taking jumpers. Considering this Duke team already has a few players that don’t like to shoot the ball to begin with, that spells trouble for a Blue Devils squad fresh off the disappointment of losing Mike Krzyzewski’s last home game. 

If the Orange can make sure they don’t leave AJ Griffin open from the outside, the team could ultimately be in decent shape in this matchup. Paolo Banchero is going to put up some decent numbers in this game, but his production — along with center Mark Williams’ — could be somewhat limited by the way Cuse shrinks the court on defense. 

On the other end of the floor, Syracuse has what it takes to put up points against Duke’s defense, which is 27th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Joseph Girard III had 16 points and four assists against Florida State, and he’s a sniper with loads of experience at this point. However, it was Cole Swider that was the go-to guy for the Orange in that one, as the Villanova Wildcats transfer had 28 points and 13 rebounds.

Swider has a lot of big-game experience from his time with the Wildcats, and he should continue to play well until his squad is bounced from this tournament. He'll need to rise to the occasion in this game with Buddy Boeheim suspended. 

Overall, this is just too many points for Syracuse to be getting, even without its best scorer. Guys like Jimmy Boeheim and Symir Torrence are capable of stepping it up for the underdogs.

Prediction: Syracuse +13 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

There should be a decent amount of shot-making when these two teams take the floor on Thursday, but they are playing in the early game. That means it could take some time for these players to find their rhythm, and that’s especially true for Duke.

The Blue Devils haven’t yet played a game in this tournament, so they haven’t had time to really get used to playing at the Barclays Center. That could help Syracuse earlier on in this one, much like it did with the Boston College Eagles in their meeting with the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. 

The Orange are also going to want to go out of their way to make this game a little sloppier than usual, as the team’s offense won’t be as effective without Buddy in the lineup. Syracuse went with a small-ball look for a majority of its game against Florida State, but the suspension might mean it will go back to a bigger lineup. It could also opt to slow the pace down significantly.

It should be noted that the Under is 4-1 in Duke’s last five games after having allowed 90 or more points in its previous outing. Expect the Blue Devils to play a defensive-minded game. 

Prediction: Under 152 (-110)

Best bet

Syracuse was dealt a difficult blow with the suspension of its leading scorer, but it does have two other wings that it can easily utilize more. The Orange can also give Symir Torrence a bigger role, as he proved himself to be more than ready in a great performance against the Seminoles.

Overall, this game still comes down to whether or not Duke will be able to beat the 2-3 zone, and it’s hard to trust the Blue Devils to do that with their current rotation. The shooting just isn’t there. 

Over the last three seasons, Syracuse happens to be 14-5 against the spread when facing defenses that hold opponents to 42.0% or worse from the field after 15 games. It has also won those games by an average of 2.0 points per game. Its also 42-22-1 ATS as a neutral-court underdog under Boeheim. 

Pick: Syracuse +13 (-110)

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