East Tennessee St vs Samford Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Tired Legs in North Carolina

The East Tennessee State Buccaneers pulled off their second upset in as many days with a Sunday night overtime victory over No. 3-seed Chattanooga. 

Monday night's Southern Conference Tournament finale marks the third consecutive matchup the conference tournament odds have listed the Buccaneers as a sizable underdog when they meet the No. 1-seed Samford Bulldogs.

With March Madness odds about to explode, can East Tennessee State pull off another upset? Join me as I examine this SoCon Tournament final matchup with free college basketball picks for East Tennessee State and Samford on Monday, March 11. 

East Tennessee State vs Samford best odds

East Tennessee State vs Samford picks and predictions

March Madness is all about the “Cinderella,” and the No. 7-seed East Tennessee State Buccaneers have been the very definition of one this week at the SoCon tourney.

East Tennessee State has gotten hot at the right time and has come through a tough draw. The underdog role seems to suit the Buccaneers, but it gets more difficult on tonight when they meet the SoCon regular season champ and top-seed Samford Bulldogs.

The Buccaneers came into the tournament on a two-game winning streak. They improved that to five games after beating Chattanooga in overtime to set up this chance to hear their name called as SoCon champs on Selection Sunday.

ETSU must do the three things it does best just to stay in this game. It must snag offensive rebounds, block shots, and force turnovers that turn into nearly 15 points per game. All three had better be on point, otherwise, it will get blown out.

Samford is rolling. The Bulldogs haven’t had a close game yet in Asheville and will benefit from playing their second consecutive opponent that required overtime to advance. They’ve led the conference this season in numerous offensive categories and led the SoCon in steals, which has led to nearly 20 points from turnovers and has provided the fuel for their 11-2 run leading up to tonight’s final.

If the recent history between these programs can indicate what will happen, we should expect to see a close game that likely ends Under the total as four of their previous five ended Under the number, and the contrast in styles between the high-scoring Buccaneers and defensive-minded Bulldogs will lead to a low-scoring tilt.

Finally, tonight is for all the marbles. The winner hears its name on Selection Sunday, and the losing team heads back to the lecture hall. That’s a lot to play for. The early jitters will lead to mistakes and shots falling short as the ETSU legs begin to realize they’ve played four consecutive nights. The same can also be true for the Bulldogs, playing on their third successive night. This is their third meeting this season, which could become physical between the familiar foes. Four of their last five have ended Under the number as will Monday night’s tilt.

My best bet: Under 151.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

East Tennessee State vs Samford same-game parlay

Under 151.5

ETSU +10.5

Samford moneyline

+430 at DraftKings

ETSU is 7-3-0 against the spread over its last five and is 4-1-0 ATS over its past five as the underdog. It has a scary good offensive-rebounding unit and has played terrific basketball over its previous five. Samford is 3-2-0 ATS over its previous five tilts, but its turnover rate is high, and its 3-point defense is leaky enough for ETSU to cover.

Samford may not cover, but it will win this game. It's defeated the Bucs in each of their five meetings and is the fresher and deeper program with the experience to close this one out down the stretch.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

East Tennessee State vs Samford spread and Over/Under analysis

ETSU has had a couple of solid victories here in Asheville, yet the No. 7 seed is a +10.5-point underdog against the regular-season champs. That number hasn’t budged at all, but I expect it to, and if it does, +10.5 might be the best number we’ll see.

It does make sense. Over their recent history, Samford has treated Eastern Tennessee like an annoying little brother. It's not only beaten the Bucs but covered the spread in four of their last five meetings. 

It’s hard to deny how well ETSU has played over the past five. It's covered five straight, including all three tournament games, and its comeback victory from 20 points down on Sunday and sixth-best second-half scoring offense (50.4 ppg) is hard to ignore. 

The Under is my best bet. It’s been the soundtrack to their last five head-to-head meetings, and 151.5 points is a high number for a conference tourney final. While these teams have shown strong trends towards the Over, Monday is a championship game. Last season, the Under was 21-9-0 over the 30 conference tourney championship games, and this one should end Under as well. 

East Tennessee State vs Samford betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1-0 in their previous five meetings. Find more college basketball betting trends for East Tennessee State vs. Samford.

East Tennessee State vs Samford game info

East Tennessee State vs Samford key injuries

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