Florida State vs North Carolina Predictions, Picks, and Odds: Ingram Eats Against Seminoles

Conference Tournament odds are heating up as the ACC enters the quarterfinals today, starting with the top-seeded North Carolina Tar Heels taking on the Florida State Seminoles.

The Tar Heels got an automatic advancement to Round 3 while FSU had to fight off Virginia Tech for a spot in the quarters. The Seminoles erupted for 86 points in Wednesday’s victory, but now face the premier defense in the ACC.

North Carolina rides a six-game winning streak in the postseason and is pushing for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament — currently just on the outside of the Top 5 in March Madness odds. The Tar Heels likely need to win the tournament crown and get a slip up from Tennessee in the SEC tournament to slide into a top seed for the Big Dance.

I break down the ACC Tournament odds for this quarterfinal contest and give my free college basketball picks for Florida State vs. North Carolina on March 14.

Florida State vs North Carolina best odds

Florida State vs North Carolina picks and predictions

The Florida State Seminoles were able to bully Virginia Tech in their tournament opener, dominating the Hokies inside and on the boards. That’s going to be tough to pull off against the North Carolina Tar Heels.

North Carolina is one of the best interior defenses in the country and cleans the glass like all players have a NIL deal with Windex. The Tar Heels rank 16th in total rebound rate, led by the likes of Armando Bacot and Harrison Ingram.

Ingram, who snatches an average of 9.3 rebounds per game, has been especially active on the boards in ACC play. He enters the postseason pulling in more than 11 rebounds per outing over his last seven games and rounded up 17 boards when UNC took on Florida State back on January 27.

Despite their 33 total rebounds in the win over VT, the Seminoles aren’t a great rebounding team. Florida State sits 285th in rebound rate and allows 36.5 boards per game to opponents, including 9.5 offensive rebounds an outing. Ingram is a pest on the offensive glass, grabbing almost three offensive rebounds per game. Against FSU, the 6-foot-7 junior recorded seven offensive boards in 33 minutes. 

The Tar Heels defense will push FSU out to the perimeter and expose a poor shooting team from Tallahassee. The Noles like to push tempo and score at the hoop while struggling in a half-court set. On the season, FSU hits less than 32% of its looks from beyond the arc and is 299th in points per play in the half court.

The Noles shot 43.5% from the floor in their first matchup with UNC this season, and that came at home. Expect FSU to struggle again vs. the Heels on a neutral court. Given the pace of these two teams — ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in tempo in the ACC — there'll be plenty of possessions and ample rebounding opportunities for the towering Tar Heels.

Ingram’s player projections call for close to 11 rebounds in this quarterfinal contest and most prop markets have his rebounding total set at 10.5 Over/Under. However, FanDuel is dealing Over 9.5 rebounds at -110 on Thursday morning.

My best bet: Harrison Ingram Over 9.5 Rebounds -110 (-110 at FanDuel)

Florida State vs North Carolina same-game parlay

Harrison Ingram 10+ rebounds

Ingram 10+ points

North Carolina moneyline

+155 at bet365

Ingram has been hauling in 11 boards per game in recent weeks and snatched 17 rebounds in his last meeting with FSU.

Ingram had seven offensive rebounds vs. the Noles last time out and will benefit from some easy putbacks again today.

North Carolina’s defense will expose a poor shooting Seminoles team and advance to the ACC semis this afternoon.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Florida State vs North Carolina spread and Over/Under analysis

Following Florida State’s win on Wednesday, oddsmakers opened the Tar Heels as 10.5-point favorites for this neutral-site matchup at Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. Some books stayed low, with UNC hitting the board at -9.5.

As of Thursday morning, the market consensus is UNC -10.5 and Covers Consensus shows 60% of early picks on Florida State and the points.

North Carolina is playing its best basketball at the perfect time, bull rushing the postseason on a six-game winning streak including a massive season-ending victory at Duke last weekend. The Tar Heels are 4-2 ATS in that span and boast a 17-13-1 ATS mark overall, including a 10-6 ATS count away from Chapel Hill.

North Carolina, which ranks No. 5 in KenPom’s ballyhooed defensive efficiency metric, is the top defensive team in the ACC and allows just over 70 points against per contest. The Heels hooked up with FSU back in late January, taking a 75-68 win in Tallahassee and pushed with the closing spread of seven points.

Thursday’s Over/Under total hit the board as big as 154.5 points and has ticked down to 153.5 in the first few minutes of action.

North Carolina enters the ACC tournament with a 14-17 O/U record on the season. While UNC is 2-8 O/U in road games, it is 5-1 O/U on neutral courts. The Tar Heels closed the conference slate with a 1-4 O/U run in the final five games.

As for FSU, Wednesday’s final score extends Florida State’s Over run to five straight outings. On the year, the up-tempo Seminoles are 20-11-1 O/U with a 10-5 O/U count in road/neutral games. 

The January 27 matchup between these teams finished below the closing total of 153.5 points after UNC slowed down the Seminoles for only 27 second-half points after 41 in the first 20 minutes.

Florida State vs North Carolina betting trend to know

Harrison Ingram has recorded 10 or more rebounds in 14 of his last 19 games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida State vs. North Carolina.

Florida State vs North Carolina game info

Florida State vs North Carolina key injuries

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