The second annual Jumpman Invitational tips off on Tuesday night with a showdown between the Florida Gators and Michigan Wolverines.
This is expected to be a close contest as college basketball odds opened with the Gators as 2-point favorites before growing to -3.5. Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Florida vs. Michigan on December 19.
Florida vs Michigan best odds
Florida vs Michigan picks and predictions
This is a Michigan Wolverines squad that has been shooting the ball extremely well thus far, ranking 13th in the nation in effective field goal percentage (53.7%).
The Wolverines currently have four players averaging double digits in points, led by guard Dug McDaniel (17.9 points and 5.0 assists per game) and big man Olivier Nkamhoua (16.5 points and 7.3 rebounds per game). All four of those players shoot better than 37% from 3-point range helping Michigan knock down 9.2 treys per game at a 37.8% clip.
The Florida Gators have generally done a decent job at defending, ranking 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. However, the Gators sit outside the Top 250 in opponent 3-point percentage (34.7%) and they've been torched by Baylor, Wake Forest, Richmond, and Virginia.
The Wolverines play at an average pace themselves, but they don't slow down opponents on the other end of the floor and typically allow their foes to control the tempo. That should mean plenty of running and gunning from a Gators squad that is 12th in the country in average length of possession on offense (14.9 seconds) while ranking 16th in adjusted tempo.
The Gators have four players averaging at least 12 ppg, with guard Walter Clayton pacing the squad with 16.5 ppg while big man Tyrese Samuel controls the paint with 13.9 ppg and 8.4 rpg.
While Florida doesn't shoot the ball as well as Michigan, the Gators have the fourth-highest offensive rebounding rate (41.8%) in the country. That, combined with their willingness to push the pace, has led to them ranking 32nd in the country in scoring with 82.3 ppg — just ahead of the Wolverines (82.2 ppg).
Unfortunately, the Wolverines haven't been anywhere near as impressive on the other end of the floor, where they've surrendered 78.3 ppg over their last eight games and rank 126th in adjusted defensive efficiency. With both teams filling up the hoop and having flaws on defense, take the Over on the game total tonight, especially with KenPom projecting a total of 161.
My best bet: Over 157.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Florida vs Michigan same-game parlay
Over 157.5
Walter Clayton Over 14.5 points
Dug McDaniel Under 17.5 points
Clayton leads the Gators with 16.5 ppg and is coming off a 22-point performance against East Carolina. While his scoring production can be a bit volatile due to his 3-point shooting, he should have success from beyond the arc against a Wolverines team that ranks just 299th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (36.2%).
Taking the Over on the game total while taking the Under on McDaniel's points creates a nice multiplier for this SGP. Keep in mind that while the Wolverines have continued to fill up the hoop, McDaniel hasn't scored more than 13 points in each of his last three games. There are plenty of other weapons on UM that can get buckets and McDaniel is more than comfortable facilitating for others and racking up assists.
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Florida vs Michigan spread and Over/Under analysis
This spread opened with the Gators installed as slim 2-point favorites, but money has since come in on them, shifting the line as high as -4 before buyback pushed it back to -3.5. The Over/Under opened at 158, ticked down to 157, and has shifted back up to 158 at most books as of noon ET.
The Wolverines are coming off an 83-66 win against Eastern Michigan, where they shot a sizzling 63% from inside the arc and 44% from long range. They have now won back-to-back games but are just 2-6 against the spread in their last eight contests.
The Gators are fresh off a 70-65 win against East Carolina but have also struggled to cover, going 2-7-1 ATS this season despite a solid 7-3 straight up record.
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Florida vs Michigan betting trend to know
The Over is 9-2 in Michigan's 11 games this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Michigan.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Florida vs Michigan game info
| Location: | Spectrum Center, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Florida vs Michigan key injuries
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