Florida vs Oklahoma Odds, Picks and Predictions: Sooners Keep Things Close

The Men's portion of the Jumpman Invitational tips off at 9:30, featuring the 7-4 Florida Gators taking on the 8-3 Oklahoma Sooner at the Spectrum Center. 

The Jumpman Invitational is a two-day event featuring Men’s and Women’s teams from the original four schools to have signed partnership deals with the Nike Jordan brand, Michigan, North Carolina, Florida, and Oklahoma. 

Who will win this Jumpman Invitational tilt? Find out in our free Florida Gators vs. Oklahoma Sooners college basketball picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 20.

Florida vs Oklahoma best odds

Florida vs Oklahoma picks and predictions

Oklahoma hasn’t covered the spread much this season (5-6 ATS) but has covered on a neutral court three out of four times, playing the likes of Nebraska, Seton Hall, and Mississippi. Its only ATS loss was to a solid Arkansas team where it scored 78 points against a solid Razorbacks' defense.

Senior guard Grant Sherfield has been a force, leading the team in scoring and assists while hitting 55% of his triple attempts. Tanner Groves leads the team in rebounding and is second in scoring along with his brother Jacob (10 ppg). 

The Sooners shoot it well from inside and outside the arc, draining 39.5% of their triple attempts and boasting the third-best effective field goal percentage in the country. 

Florida plays good defense, and Tuesday marks one of those rare times when Oklahoma is the shorter team. The Gators have a slight size advantage and can slow the high-scoring Sooners down some on the offensive end.

Senior forward Colin Castleton leads the Gators in scoring (15.2) and caroms (7.5) with a team-high 2.5 blocks per game. Kyle Lofton leads the team in assists, and guards Will Richard and Kowacie Reeves score 11 and 10 ppg, respectively. 

Florida is a decent shooting team with an above-average effective field goal percentage and knocks down 38% of its three-point tries. 

Oklahoma plays better-than-average defense, and the Groves brothers are big enough to battle with Castleton and keep him from eating in the paint. Slow down Castleton, and you slow Florida, and I expect that to happen. 

This should be a hard-fought battle between two better-than-average college basketball teams, but I expect the Sooners to cover the spread. They are the better offensive team and have three SU victories over Top 75 KenPom teams — Florida doesn’t have one victory as good as any of those. Oklahoma is the better shooting side, and I believe it has enough offense to score with the Gators and cover the spread. 

My best bet: Oklahoma +2 (-110 at Pinnacle)

Florida vs Oklahoma spread analysis

Taking Oklahoma +2 is my best bet, but I’m also interested in taking the Sooners to win this game straight up.

Oklahoma has good wins over solid basketball teams we’ll likely see in the Big Dance, and three of those victories were on a neutral court. Those are confidence-building victories Florida doesn’t have on its resume.

According to Kenneth Pomeroy, Oklahoma has played the stronger schedule of the two. The Sooners played the 136th strongest and Florida the 153rd. It isn’t much of a difference, but I believe it gives the Sooners an edge.

Both teams rely on and are very good at shooting the triple. Oklahoma opponents make 27% of their triples, and Florida holds opponents to 35.5% shooting from downtown.

Finally, Oklahoma is the better team and has been mispriced. It can compete with Florida inside or outside the arc and has the physicality to keep Castelton from going off. The Sooners are the better passing and shooting team, and I’m going with Oklahoma to win this game. 

Florida vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis

The total ranges from 139 to 140.5 points, and I would lean Under 140.5.

We have contrasting play styles — the snail pace of the Sooners and the lightning pace of the Gators. That will be uncomfortable for both teams early in the game and greatly affect the total.

These big teams score most of their points inside the paint. We don’t have exceptional free-throw shooting teams or even good offensive rebounding sides featured in this game, and if the zebras are blowing the whistles, we could see a bunch of bricks. 

Both defenses defend the arc well, and the wide-open looks some have enjoyed thus far might be elsewhere. That is significant for teams relying on the triple for as much as 30%, like the Sooners, or the 28% of Florida points.

Oklahoma averages just 10 free-throw attempts a night, while Florida gets to the charity stripe a 44th-best 15 times. Both sides are better than average from the charity stripe, but the Sooners’ inability to get to the line will keep the score from ballooning.  

Both teams are 5-6 to the Under, and my lean is for this game to end Under the total. 

Florida vs Oklahoma betting trend to know

The Sooners are 6-1 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Florida vs. Oklahoma.

Florida vs Oklahoma game info

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