Gonzaga vs St. Mary's Picks and Predictions: Zig When They Zag

The top two teams in the West Coast Conference square off Saturday night as the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs head to Moraga to face the No. 23 Saint Mary’s Gaels.

Gonzaga looks to strengthen its case for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Saint Mary’s is 15-0 at home this season but has the unenviable task of ending the Bulldogs’ 34-game conference winning streak. 

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for the Gonzaga Bulldogs and Saint Mary’s Gaels on Saturday, February 26.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Per usual in WCC play, Gonzaga is a double-digit favorite despite being on the road. The Bulldogs opened -11 and are -10 as of late Saturday morning. The total sits at 144.5, as points are expected. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's predictions

• Prediction: Saint Mary’s +10 (-110)
• Prediction: 143.5 (-110)
• Best bet: First half Under 68 (-112)

Predictions made on 2/26/2022 at 9:55 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's game info

• Location: University Credit Union Pavillion, Moraga, CA
• Date: Saturday, February 26, 2022
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Gonzaga at St. Mary's betting preview

Injuries

Gonzaga: Kaden Perry F (Out), Dominick Harris G (Out).
St. Mary's : None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Saint Mary’s is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 home games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Gonzaga vs. St. Mary's.

Gonzaga vs St. Mary's picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Gonzaga has been about as dominant as possible in college hoops this season, accumulating a 24-2 record and holding the No. 1 ranking in the country. Conference opponents haven’t stood a chance — the Bulldogs’ average margin of victory in WCC play is 27 points.

The Zags are Top-10 on both sides of the ball according to KenPom. This is a well-rounded team that is first nationally in scoring offense (89.5 PPG) while playing sound defense. Forward Drew Timme leads the way with 18.1 points and 6.4 rebounds per contest, and Chet Holmgren certainly is making his mark around the college basketball landscape with his incredible play. An option to be the No. 1 player taken in the 2022 NBA Draft, Holmgren is averaging 14.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 3.5 blocks per game.

San Francisco was supposed mount a challenge on Thursday, but the Zags rolled to an 89-73 win on the road. Holmgren looks to be getting more comfortable and becoming even more lethal as the season goes on. The freshman finished with an eye-popping stat line of 21 points, 15 rebounds, 3 steals, and 6 blocks. The Dons are a candidate for an at-large tournament bid and were expected to be a relatively tough out at home, but the Zags rolled anyway. Will Saint Mary’s prove to be a tougher test at home?

These two teams played on Feb. 12 and Gonzaga came away with a 74-58 victory. That game was a push against the spread, as Gonzaga was a 16-point favorite at home. According to our calculations, this will be the eighth time that they’ve faced off when both teams are ranked — the Bulldogs won the first seven meetings. 

The Gaels have a perfect 15-0 record at home this season and are 10-4 ATS in Moraga. It also doesn’t hurt that this game will be played at 7:00 p.m. Pacific Time, as Saint Mary’s is 16-7-1 ATS during night games. To be fair, most of its games have occurred at night — the Gaels are 18-9-1 ATS overall this season.

It seems to be inarguable that Randy Bennett is one of the best coaches in college basketball, especially at the mid-major level. Bennett consistently churns out winning teams seemingly every year, and this year is no exception. The Gaels have a good chance at an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament as they’re currently ranked in the AP Poll (No. 23).

Saint Mary’s checks in at 21st overall in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency. The Gaels like to slow the game down to a halt, ranking 335th in adjusted tempo, while relying on a stingy defense, allowing only 59.5 points per game (11th nationally).

We think the Gaels’ style of slowing down games should allow them to keep this game within the number. Limit possessions, play tough defense, hit shots, and keep things close at home.

Prediction: Saint Mary’s +10 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

This game is truly a contrast of styles. Gonzaga plays at the sixth-fastest tempo in the country according to KenPom, while Saint Mary’s is found down at 335 in pace.

Gonzaga’s excellent offense (first nationally in points per game, second in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency) will be put to the test against one of the nation’s best defenses. Saint Mary’s is holding opponents to under 60 points per game while ranking 10th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. 

This game will be played in Moraga, and we expect Saint Mary’s to affect this game’s pace. Bennett and company seek to limit the number of possessions to have the best chance at an upset. Gonzaga shot well from the field in the first matchup (60% effective field goal percentage), but managed 74 points, well below its season-long average.

We believe there is some value on the Under. Saint Mary’s is playing in its home gym, plays great defense, and has one of the slowest tempos in the country. Gonzaga will still score, but these two teams combined for only 132 points in the first meeting.

Prediction: Under 143.5 (-110)

Best bet

We like Saint Mary’s to keep things close at home and therefore recommend both the side and the total.

The best way to target this game based upon the game flow that we expect is to look at the first-half Under. Saint Mary’s will look to limit possessions and simply keep this game close — they don’t stand a chance if this one becomes a track meet.

We’re fully aware that Gonzaga is the more quality team and very well may pull away late, which is why we’re narrowing our focus to this first half. The Gaels are +6.5 on the spread for the first half, which we also like, but we’ll be using the Under as our best bet.

Pick: First Half Under 68 (-112)

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