The Houston Cougars take on the Alabama Crimson Tide in a game between two extremely talented and ranked teams.
The Cougars have just one loss all season, against Wisconsin, where Houston ended up losing by two. Houston has been in every game this season and has become one of the best defenses in the nation.
Meanwhile, Alabama took a bad loss to Iona earlier this season but has rebounded well after beating Gonzaga in a semi-away game in Seattle, WA.
Which team will out-perform the other? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for between the Houston Cougars vs Alabama Crimson Tide on December 11.
Houston vs Alabama odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Alabama opened as a 1.5-point favorite at home and is now currently a 2-point favorite at most books. However, some books are sleeping at the wheel and still have a 1.5 line up as of Saturday morning.
The total has seen a little more line movement since opening at 144.5. Most books are carrying a 145.5 number while some have already moved to 146.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Houston vs Alabama predictions
Predictions made on 12/11/2021 at 8:05 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston vs Alabama game info
• Location: Coleman Coliseum, Tuscaloosa, AL
• Date: Saturday, December 11, 2021
• Tip-off: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2
Houston at Alabama betting preview
Injuries
Houston: Ramon Walker Jr G (Out).
Alabama: Nimari Burnett G (Out), James Rojas F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Under is 4-1 in Cougars’ last five games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Alabama.
Houston vs Alabama picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Houston Cougars have been known for their defense in the last couple of years, however, the offense has been extremely consistent this season. The Cougars are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 57.2% while knocking down 38.4% of long-range jumpers. Houston is also hitting 57% from inside the arc but has struggled from the line.
The Cougars will be able to limit turnovers as they’ve coughed them up on just 15.9% of possessions this season. Houston is also capable of winning on the glass, earning 36.2% of offensive rebounds on the season.
However, with Alabama, the defense has been much better than recent years. The Crimson Tide are holding teams to a 46.6% effective field goal percentage. Opponents are only hitting 27% of 3-pointers against Alabama this season, which means Houston might want to work Alabama inside a little bit more.
Nobody is tuning into the game to watch Houston’s offense go to work against Alabama’s. Most viewers will want to see how Alabama’s offense stacks up against Houston’s defense.
Alabama is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% while hitting 34.7% from long range and 58.2% from inside the arc. Just like Houston, Alabama has had success working the offensive glass with 35.3% offensive rebounds on the season. It’s likely that Houston earns more turnovers in this game and the Cougars are also holding teams to a 42.4% effective field goal percentage.
Opponents are hitting just 27.6% from downtown and 43.4% from inside the arc against Houston.
This is going to be a back-and-forth battle. Both teams stack up well against one another when it comes to strengths and weaknesses.
I’ll take the points with Houston, however. I’d be impressed with Alabama earning back-to-back wins over Gonzaga and Houston.
Prediction: Houston +2 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Anytime you see a number over 140 in a Houston game, the Under has to be considered. Houston has a defensive adjusted efficiency of 87.5 and has really dominated defensively all year long.
On the other hand, Alabama, despite not earning turnovers, has done its job, holding teams to just 27% from behind the arc.
On top of all that, Houston is shooting a free throw percentage of just 65.4% while Alabama is shooting an equally-dismal 65.2% from the foul line. That could become a factor in this game when it comes down to the total.
I’ll ride the Under.
Prediction: Under 145.5 (-110)
Best bet
I know Alabama loves to run and gun, but against Houston, most teams have extreme difficulty doing that. Opponents are using 18.5 seconds per possession against Houston on offense.
The Crimson Tide are going to want to get out on the break, but in those moments where Alabama has to play half-court offense, the shot clock is going to go all the way down before a shot is up in the air.
I’ll make the Under my top play for this game.
Pick: Under 145.5 (-110)
Did you know that if you parlayed our Houston vs. Alabama picks, you could win $26.45 on a $10 bet?
Use our college basketball parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
