In the final regular-season game of the year, the Houston Cougars will head out on the road to take on the Memphis Tigers.
The Houston Cougars are currently 26-4 and have now won six straight games in conference play. Meanwhile, Memphis has won nine of its last 10 games and looks to be turning the corner at the perfect time.
Will Houston hold on as short favorites on the road? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for the Houston Cougars and Memphis Tigers.
Houston vs Memphis odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Houston opened as a 2-point favorite and is currently -2.5 at most outlets. The total has also jumped from 139 at open to 139.5 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Houston vs Memphis predictions
Predictions made on 3/6/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston vs Memphis game info
• Location: FedEx Forum, Memphis, TN
• Date: Sunday, March 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Houston at Memphis betting preview
Injuries
Houston: Tramon Mark G (Out), Marcus Sasser G (Out).
Memphis: Jayden Hardaway G (Questionable), Emoni Bates F (Out).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Memphis.
Houston vs Memphis picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
The Houston Cougars have been one of the most well-balanced teams in college basketball this season. Despite losing two key pieces at guard, the Cougars have still won 26 games and are looking for win number 27 to close out the regular season.
The Cougars have an effective field goal percentage of 53.5%, including 34.3% from deep and 54.7% from inside the arc. They've also done a solid job of limiting turnovers.
On the other hand, Memphis is holding opponents to a 46.2% effective field goal percentage and has earned 21.1% turnovers. This season, Houston has only turned the ball over 16.8% of the time, so it might be hard for Memphis to earn all of those turnovers in this game.
On the defensive glass, the Tigers have struggled, allowing 31.7% offensive rebounds. Still, teams are shooting just 32.2% from three and 44.7% from inside the arc against Memphis this season.
Offensively, the Tigers have turned the ball over 22.7% of the time. Memphis is a young group with a lot of freshmen, but that’s just way too high of a number for an 18-win team.
Memphis is currently knocking down 36% from three and 52.6% from inside the arc and continues to get to the line at a rapid pace. That’s going to be helpful for Memphis knowing that Houston will foul at a high rate due to its aggressive defensive style.
Houston fouls a lot and will send teams to the line, but other than that, the Houston defense is among the best in the nation. Opponents are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 43.2% while earning 22% turnovers per game.
Opponents have hit just 29.2% from three and 42.7% from inside the arc. Therefore, it’s likely that Memphis struggles to keep pace as the game goes on, even at home.
I'm backing the slim favorites on the road.
Prediction: Houston -2.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
Houston’s offense is pretty slow, using 18.8 seconds per possession this season. While both teams will likely earn second chances via offensive rebounds, there’s a good chance both teams are still defended well enough where they’ll both shoot below their current averages.
Memphis turns the ball over a lot and that should help Houston set up its half-court offense and waste time off the clock.
Neither team is elite from the foul line either. The Tigers will likely get there more often, but Memphis shoots just 68.6% from the charity stripe this season. I’ll take the Under.
Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
Best bet
There are two areas where Houston should absolutely dominate this game — the offensive glass and the turnover battle.
If Houston can do those things and continue to play extremely well on both ends of the floor as its averages suggest, Houston should win this game and cover the spread.
Memphis already defeated Houston earlier this season, on the road, 69-59. Houston had some poor stretches offensively but is back in a rhythm now.
Take Houston in this revenge spot.
Pick: Houston -2.5 (-110)
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