In NCAA college basketball, blindly crediting the home team with a set number of points is a mistake that professional handicappers and oddsmakers do not make. In fact, the value of home-court in college basketball varies more than any other sport.
Some home-court advantages are built on obnoxious student sections. Others have unique settings and backgrounds that can give shooters fits. Sometimes it’s not the atmosphere inside the venue but where it’s located that give opponents trouble. Some teams have absolutely no home-court advantage.
So, with so many different types of home-court advantages, just how much is it really worth when examining NCAA odds? Pete Korner, an oddsmaker for the Las Vegas Sports Club, believes on average home-court advantage in college basketball is worth between 3.5 to 4.5 points.
"But the variance can be huge," warned Korner. "For example, Duke has an awesome home-court advantage. It could be two or three points higher, maybe up to six to eight points depending on the opponent."
In contrast, teams like Air Force and Fordham have little to no home-court advantage.
“Home-court advantage directly correlates to how good a team is,” he continued. “There are college teams that are 1-20. Can they possibly have an advantage at home?”
Professional handicappers and Covers Experts Teddy Sevransky and David Malinsky agree with Korner.
“There is no default number for college hoops home-court advantage,” said Sevransky. “Home courts can be worth as little as half a point and as much as six or seven points. It varies dramatically from team to team, conference to conference and court to court.”
Often, Malinsky says the home-court advantage is supplied by the road team’s ability to deal with it.
"While there are general math models that usually come in around 3.5 to 4.5 points in most seasons," said Malinsky, "our key is to break it down (home-court advantage) game by game when offering our NCAA picks."
Three tips for estimating home-court advantage
Look for places off the beaten path
"When a school is not at all close to a major airport, an opponent can end up taking a couple of planes, instead of a non-stop and also face a long bus ride," said Malinsky. "This can be particularly important if the road team has a young roster, since we tend to forget that many of these freshmen and sophomores have rarely been on planes before or had to sleep in hotel beds (which are not built for basketball players, of course)."
Home-court advantage declines late in the season
"A strong home court is worth the most in November and December," Sevransky explained. "By February all the young, inexperienced road teams have played enough road games in hostile environments to negate some of that early season edge. It's not so much that the home courts decline - the road teams just get better."
Look for special events, ceremonies
Malinsky banked on Miami (Ohio) playing well at home on Hall of Fame weekend against Western Michigan. The Redhawks honored the anniversary of the 1998-99 team that Wally Szczerbiak led to the Sweet 16.
"It was the kind of setting that absolutely matters to this level of program," Malinsky said.
As an 11.5-point favorite, Miami (Ohio) won by 18.
"Fortunately, that play worked," he reflected. "But it is part of a process that we go through each day, not just rating how good each team is against the other, but also how important that court setting is as well."
