The Maryland Terrapins are not only making a run at the Big Ten tournament title, but also trying to pump up their resume in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee.
A victory over the Illinois Fighting Illini in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament would do just that, but it’s easier said than done. Oddsmakers forecast a tight contest on Friday night, with this spread teetering on a pick’em.
My Illinois vs. Maryland predictions are leaning toward the Terps. Find out more in my college basketball picks for Friday, March 14.
Who will win Illinois vs Maryland?
As mentioned, the odds are pretty much a toss-up. Maryland has the rest edge, and I wasn’t impressed by Illinois’ defensive effort in the victory over Iowa on Thursday.
The Terrapins get the win tonight.
Illinois vs Maryland prediction
My best bet: Maryland -1 (-110 at bet365)
Thanks to its stellar two-way play, Maryland is currently projected for a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Terrapins enter this game as the No. 2 defense in the Big Ten and complement that with a dynamic offense that can score points from multiple sources.
The Terps have all five starters putting up 12-plus points per game. There are interior threats in Derik Queen and Julian Reese pounding the paint for high-percentage buckets, opening up space for perimeter players like Rodney Rice, Ja'Kobi Gillespie, and Selton Miguel.
Not only does Maryland thrive in a half-court set, but it’s even more dangerous when converting offense from defense. This is one of the better transition teams in the country (ranked 48th at ShotQualityBets), and they have scored the fourth most points off turnovers per game in conference play.
Illinois enters this matchup on a quick turnaround after a splashy debut in the Big Ten tournament last night. The Fighting Illini scored 106 points on 54% shooting, including a sizzling 12-for-26 count from beyond the arc.
However, that offensive eruption came against a Hawkeyes defense ranked at the bottom of the Big Ten, and it’s Illinois' defense that really raises eyebrows. Iowa countered with 94 points on 55% shooting and routinely drove the ball at the Illini interior, scoring easy buckets at the rim for 44 points in the paint.
In their only meeting this season, Maryland thumped Illinois 91-70 in Champaign back on January 23.
The Illini were without standout big man Tomislav Ivisic for that game, and the Terps tore up Illinois inside for 62 points in the paint. Ivisic or not, there has been a massive hole in the Fighting Illini’s defense when it comes to protecting the key, allowing the third most PITP (36.2) during Big Ten play.
If Maryland can put up high-percentage looks and slow this game down, Illinois could have a tough time bringing the ball up and finding a flow in the half-court set. I don’t see the Illini hitting at the same clip it did against Iowa, especially finding that same success from beyond the arc. The Terrapins do a good job protecting the perimeter, boasting the third lowest 3-point percentage allowed in the conference and only 6.5 triples against per game.
Game projections call for a very close contest Friday night, with the majority giving the nod to Maryland.
Illinois vs Maryland same-game parlay (SGP)
Maryland moneyline
Maryland team total Over 79.5
Race to 25 points - Maryland
The Fighting Illini needed to score 100+ against Iowa. That’s how bad their defense sucked. The Terps are pegged for 80 or more.
The opening half could be close, but I like Maryland to get to 25 points first. The Terps will score some easy ones inside, while the Illini should hit a wall against the No. 2 defense in the Big Ten.
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Illinois vs Maryland odds
Illinois vs Maryland live odds
Illinois vs Maryland opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +1.5 (-110) | Maryland -1.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Illinois +105 | Maryland -125
- Over/Under: Over 159 (-110) | Under 159 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Maryland betting trend to know
The Terrapins have cashed the moneyline in 22 of their last 30 games (+11.95 Units / 2% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Maryland.
How to watch Illinois vs Maryland
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Friday, 3-14-2025 |
| Tip-off | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Big Ten Network |
Illinois vs Maryland key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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