The Illinois Fighting Illini have just three games left to get right after a bumpy February put their postseason plans in a blender.
The Illini finished last month with a 4-4 record and tumbled down the Big Ten standings, as they now sit seventh in the conference. A road win against the Michigan Wolverines would go a long way in terms of finding their form, with the Illini turning to talented big man Tomislav Ivisic to anchor that rally.
The 7-footer is bound for a big day on the boards. That’s the base for my Illinois vs Michigan predictions and college basketball picks for Sunday, March 2.
Illinois vs Michigan prediction
My best bet
Tomislav Ivisic Over 6.5 rebounds (+120 at bet365)
My analysis
Tomislav Ivisic is averaging eight rebounds per game on the season, but his recent rebounding outputs have come in well below that bar.
The sophomore center has snatched totals of four, three, and three boards in his past three outings, which is dragging down his rebounding total for tonight’s road matchup vs. the Michigan Wolverines. Player props have his rebounding Over/Under at 6.5 with the Over priced at +120.
Looking at those last three outings — two losses and a win — we find at least one side shooting better than 50% from the field. In defeats to Wisconsin and Duke, those opponents connected on 52% and 56% of their field goal attempts, leaving fewer rebounding chances.
Ivisic was also battling through the flu in those games, including traveling to Wisconsin separately and logging only 21 minutes. The Illinois Fighting Illini had to then head to Madison Square Garden for that neutral-site matchup with the Blue Devils four days later.
Against Iowa, he recorded only four rebounds in a beating of the Hawkeyes, with Ivisic leading the charge on offense with 22 points. A surge to start the second half put Illinois up big and the team cruised the rest of the way, finishing with 51% success from the floor.
Tonight’s tilt in Ann Arbor will be plentiful in terms of rebounding opportunities. Both Illinois and Michigan play an up-tempo style, ranked No. 1 and No. 3 in pace for the conference. That pans out to plenty of possessions and field goal attempts.
The thing is, neither team is great at shooting the ball. The Wolverines are among the worst outside shooting team in the Big Ten and their overall effectiveness has sunk like a stone in recent outings, shooting a 47% eFG rate the past three games.
Illinois is even worse from the perimeter. It ranks among the worse outside shooting teams in the country (328th) and is connecting on just 24.7% of 3-point attempts the last three games. The Illini rely on getting to the rim, but UM’s size can counter that interior attack.
Given the current form of these two offenses, I expect an uglier Big Ten battle and ample chances for Ivisic to clean the glass. Player projections agree with that sentiment, with forecasts as tall as double-digit boards for the Serbian standout.
My number is tempered, with a projected 7.8 rebounds from Ivisic which is more than enough to get Over his total of 6.5 boards. Before that three-game lull, the 7-footer hauled in seven or more boards in five straight and had posted seven-plus rebounds in 14 of the 17 games prior to his illness at Wisconsin.
Illinois vs Michigan same-game parlay (SGP)
Tomislav Ivisic 7+ rebounds
Tomislav Ivisic 10+ points
Danny Wolf 7+ rebounds
The quick pace and poor shooting of both sides leaves a lot of misses for Ivisic to haul down, with some models as high as 12 rebounds.
A few of those boards will come on the offensive end, leading to easy buckets. Player projections sit above 10 points for Illinois’ big man.
Wolf gets in on the rebound party as well. He’s crashing the glass for at least seven boards today.
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Illinois vs Michigan odds
Illinois vs Michigan live odds
Illinois vs Michigan opening odds
- Spread: Illinois +3 | Michigan -3
- Moneyline: Illinois +132 | Michigan -155
- Over/Under: Over 159 | Under 159
Odds courtesy of bet365
Illinois vs Michigan betting trend to know
Illinois has gone Under its team total in 10 of its last 15 away games (+4.35 Units/25% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan.
How to watch Illinois vs Michigan
| Location | Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Sunday, 3-2-2025 |
| Tip-off | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Illinois vs Michigan key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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