Illinois vs Michigan State Picks and Predictions: Spartans Win This Fight

The Michigan State Spartans look to break out of a funk as they host the Illinois Fighting Illini on Saturday in a matchup between two Top-25 teams. 

It’s been a tough stretch for the Spartans, who have dropped three of their last four games and may need a win Saturday to avoid a full-blown tailspin. The Illini are also in a funk, having dropped two of their last three.

These teams initially met on Jan. 25, resulting in a narrow 56-55 win for Illinois. Will history repeat itself, or will the Spartans find revenge at home?

Check out our college basketball picks and predictions for Illinois vs. Michigan State on Saturday, February 19 to find out.

Illinois vs Michigan State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

This line opened as a pick em’, but Illinois has moved to a -1.5 favorite. The betting market has decided that the Illini should take this game at home. The total opened 140 and dropped half a point to 139.5 as of very early Saturday morning.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Illinois vs Michigan State predictions

• Prediction: Michigan State +1.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Michigan State +1.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/19/2022 at 1:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Illinois vs Michigan State game info

• Location: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Saturday, February 19, 2022
• Tip-off: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Illinois at Michigan State betting preview

Injuries

Illinois: Austin Hutcherson G (Out).
Michigan State: None.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Fighting Illini are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Illinois vs. Michigan State.

Illinois vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Both teams are in a bit of a funk lately, but this is still a matchup between two ranked teams that each possess an 18-7 overall record. The first matchup saw the Illini snatch a 56-55 win at home despite missing the services of star big man Kofi Cockburn. The center averaged 21.4 points and 11.3 rebounds, so he’ll be a welcome addition after Illinois was outrebounded 41 to 27 in the first meeting.

Still, we think there’s some value with the home team in what should be a close matchup. Michigan State ranks 24th overall in KenPom, not too far behind Illinois (15th). The slimmest of margins are to be found when discussing two Top-25 teams, and it’s the Spartans who will be playing in front of their home crowd at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. 

The Spartans sport a pristine 10-2 overall record at home. Illinois hasn’t proven to be a very tough out on the road, going just 5-4. We believe the home-court advantage is huge in this matchup considering that only one point separated these teams in the first matchup. The Spartans are 5-3 ATS at home while the Illini are 3-6 ATS on the road. 

The Spartans average 72.7 points per game offensively while allowing 66.1 points defensively. This is a well-rounded team under Tom Izzo that grades out above-average in most categories without appearing elite in any one area. The Spartans do shoot the three-ball well, ranking 15th nationally while cashing on 38.3% of their attempts from downtown. Considering that the Spartans hit only 3 of their 14 attempts from three-point range in the first matchup, we believe there is significant room for improvement in that area this time around. 

The Illini are a Top-25 squad for a reason. Led by Cockburn, they have a solid supporting cast including Alfonso Plummer (14.9 PPG), Trent Frazier (12.4 PPG, 4.0 APG), and Jacob Grandison (9.9 PPG). The Spartans are led by Gabe Brown’s 12.1 points per game, but this is a true team approach. MSU lacks star power but is a well-coached and well-rounded unit.

This is undeniably a close matchup, but Michigan State has the home-court advantage and the revenge motivation angle. Give us the Spartans as the short home underdog. 

Prediction: Michigan State +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

These two teams combined for only 111 points in the first meeting, yet for some reason, oddsmakers have placed this total up to 139.5. We think that is simply too high.

Neither team plays at a particularly scary pace. Illinois ranks 185th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric, while Michigan State is only slightly ahead at 148th. Neither team is expected to play at a breakneck speed all game, but rather will pick and choose moments to utilize tempo.

Both teams are stout on the defensive side of the floor. Illinois allows 66.4 points per game while limiting teams to 40.4% from the field (40th) and 31.3% from three-point range (74th). Michigan State allowed 66.1 points per game and limits opponents to 40.3% on field goals (35th) and 30.2% from downtown (40th).

We have two solid defenses and nothing special to note about the tempo. This seems like great value in the Under. 

Prediction: Under 139.5 (-110)

Best bet

This is a close matchup between two Top-25 teams, but the Spartans have the clear advantage of playing on their homecourt.

Look for the Spartans to improve upon their robust 10-2 record at home as they seek revenge for the first matchup in which they fell by just one point in Champaign. 

Give us Michigan State.

Pick: Michigan State +1.5 (-110)

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