Indiana vs Michigan Big Ten Tournament Picks and Predictions: Wolverines Pounce Down Low

The Big Ten Tournament trucks on with Round 2 action Thursday, headlined by a battle between two college basketball blue bloods. The Indiana Hoosiers face the Michigan Wolverines in an afternoon affair inside Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

Michigan is slight neutral-court chalk despite pounding Indiana by nearly 20 points in their lone matchup this season. While books are expecting a much more competitive contest this time around, the Hoosiers back into the postseason with just two wins in their last nine games and face a UM squad returning suspended head coach Juwan Howard to the sideline.

Here are our free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan on March 10.

Indiana vs Michigan odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Michigan opened as low as -1.5 and has bounced between that spread and -2 on Wednesday before climbing to as high as -3.5 on game day. The total hit the board at 137.5 points and has adjusted between 136.5 and 137 depending on the sportsbook.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Indiana vs Michigan predictions

• Prediction: Michigan -3 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Indiana TT Under 66.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 3/10/2022 at 6:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Indiana vs Michigan game info

• Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• Date: Thursday, March 10, 2022
• Tip-off: 11:30 a.m. ET
• TV: Big Ten Network

Indiana at Michigan betting preview

Injuries

Indiana: Trey Galloway G (Questionable), Khristian Lander G (Questionable).
Michigan: Hunter Dickinson C (Probable).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 21-8-2 in Hoosiers’ last 31 games as underdogs. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan.

Indiana vs Michigan picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

The Hoosiers' first meeting with Michigan was possibly the program’s worst effort of the season. Now, in order to advance and make a push at earning a spot in the Big Dance, Indiana will likely have to be perfect against that same UM team.

To the Hoosiers' defense, the loss to the Wolverines was a white-hot frothing letdown spot in the waiting after IU stunned Purdue at home three days prior. But that said, Indiana’s flaws from that game won’t just go away – especially with how the team has “performed” down the stretch.

The Hoosiers aren’t a great offensive force, ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten in many scoring and shooting metrics. In the final two games of the regular season, Indiana was a collective 49-for-116 from the field (42%) including an ice-cold 11-for-41 from 3-point range.

Should the Wolverines get ahead early, IU won’t be able to counter punch with points. Indiana’s defense is sound – ranked out as the top team in defensive efficiency in the conference – but Michigan is a tough task for any program.

The Wolverines are relentless inside and bully teams with their bigs and power in the paint. Michigan can shoot a high percentage on the backs of Hunter Dickinson and Moussa Diabate, and when IU is forced to throw extra bodies inside, the UM backcourt will make them pay with extra space. 

And even if Indiana does throw a wrench in the Michigan offense, good luck battling on the boards with the Wolverines. Michigan ranks third in offensive rebound rate in the Big Ten and faces a Hoosier frontcourt that just allowed 13 offensive boards in the loss to Purdue in the season finale.

Prediction: Michigan -3 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The Hoosiers have the size to get a hand up on the UM interior shooters, owning an effective field goal rate of 45.4% on defense (17th) and averaging five blocks per game. So, don’t expect Michigan to fire at a 57% clip like it did in their first meeting.

Indiana recently checked Purdue – the top offensive efficiency program in the country – to 69 points on 40% shooting in the season finale. And while this is technically a neutral-site game, the Hoosiers should be able to travel with that defensive intensity, especially with a pro-Hoosier crowd in Indianapolis tonight.

The Wolverines don’t pose the same threat from deep as Purdue, knocking down just 6.4 3-point buckets per contest, which makes the 11 triples UM hit against Indiana back in January a big outlier. Michigan runs a slower pace on offense and picks up over 57% of its total points from 2-point field goals, so watch for IU to pack the paint and turn this game into a classic Big Ten grinder.

Prediction: Under 136.5 (-110)

Best bet

The Michigan bigs get all the love, but the Wolverines' guard play down the stretch has been fantastic, lead by seniors DeVante’ Jones and Eli Brooks. 

That pair came up big against Ohio State in the final game of the season, not only stepping up on the offensive end with Dickinson out with illness but playing tight defense on the perimeter. Jones and Brooks combined for five steals in that win.

The Hoosiers don’t present the same tough task on the defensive end in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana’s backcourt is led by Xavier Johnson but is missing depth heading into the postseason with Trey Galloway expected to miss more time and Khristian Lander a question mark.

Indiana has been cold from outside, and while the UM interior defense can be suspect at times, Michigan isn’t as gracious from beyond the arc, limiting foes to 6.5 3-point buckets an outing. Given the plodding pace of the Wolverines offense and a good chance UM wrangles its share of offensive boards for extra possessions, Indiana won’t get enough touches to threaten its team total of 66.5 points.

Pick: Indiana Team Total Under 66.5 (-110)

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