Indiana vs Michigan State Picks and Predictions: Spartans Capitalize on Hoosiers' Weak Scoring

Tonight, one team is going to snap out of a two-game losing streak, as the Indiana Hoosiers and the Michigan State Spartans have both lost back-to-back in Big Ten play. Now those two will face off against one another with MSU at home.

The Spartans took a beating by Rutgers, on the road, but came back home against Wisconsin and lost by eight. Meanwhile, Indiana lost to Illinois at home by a wide margin and couldn’t figure out Northwestern on the road in its most recent game.

Can Michigan State earn a gritty win at home? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan State on Saturday, February 12.

Indiana vs Michigan State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Michigan State opened as a 4.5-point favorite but has been bet down to -4 at most sportsbooks. Meanwhile, the total hasn’t moved since opening at 133.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Indiana vs Michigan State predictions

• Prediction: Michigan State -4 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 133.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Michigan State -4 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/12/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Indiana vs Michigan State game info

• Location: Jack Breslin Student Events Center, East Lansing, MI
• Date: Saturday, February 12, 2022
• Tip-off: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Indiana at Michigan State betting preview

Injuries

Indiana: Rob Phinisee G (Questionable).
Michigan State: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Hoosiers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan State.

Indiana vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Indiana Hoosiers have been a terrific defense this season, but the offense has lagged behind. Indiana is shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52%, which isn’t all that bad, however, it’s just not good enough in the Big Ten. 

The Hoosiers are hitting 34.4% from three and 52.3% from inside the arc, and while Indiana gets to the line at a high rate, the Hoosiers are only hitting 68.3% of foul shots.  Indiana also isn’t very effective on the offensive glass, earning just 27.7% offensive rebounds. 

Meanwhile, Michigan State’s defense is usually consistent. Teams are shooting a 46.2% effective field goal percentage against the Spartans, however, Michigan State earns under 16% turnovers. 

The lack of turnovers is really the only area where Michigan State struggles on the defensive end. 

On the other hand, the Spartans have been better offensively. Michigan State is shooting 38.8% from downtown and 49.9% from inside the arc. Indiana is terrific defensively down low, and it has also been great defending the perimeter, holding teams to 41.7% inside the arc and 30.7% from behind the arc. 

And while Michigan State turns the ball over 20.4% percent of the time, Indiana only earns 17.4% turnovers per game in the first place. On the glass, Michigan State is much more dangerous, earning 32.3% offensive rebounds. Plus, the Spartans also get to the line at a high rate. 

Despite Indiana being one of the top defenses in the nation, I like Michigan State to get back on track at home. 

Prediction: Michigan State -4 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Indiana’s defense won’t have a home crowd backing them today. Both of these teams are above average from long range and turnovers should be limited throughout the game. 

On top of that, both of these offenses move at an above-average pace when it comes to average possession length. So, while both teams are terrific on the defensive end, there are going to be plenty of possessions in this game, which will help reach the Over. 

Prediction: Over 133.5 (-110)

Best bet

I’ll stick with the home team here. Indiana has only had two road wins in conference play this season and is coming off a 51-point performance on the road against Northwestern. 

I like Indiana to have more success scoring than in that game. However, Michigan State will ultimately still execute two-way play better in today’s matchup.

Pick: Michigan State -4 (-110)

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