Indiana vs Michigan State Odds, Picks and Predictions: Spartans Have No Answer for Jackson-Davis

The Indiana Hoosiers head to East Lansing for a Big Ten battle with the Michigan State Spartans on Tuesday night.

Indiana sits 17th in the country and squeaked out a 71-68 win over Illinois at home this weekend, picking up its fourth win in the past five games but falling short of the spread as 6.5-point chalk. The Hoosiers’ ATS success hasn’t been great on the road, owning a 2-7-1 ATS mark as visitors.

Tuesday’s stop at the Breslin Center will be an emotionally-charged contest with MSU, which is playing its first game on campus since the tragic school shooting on February 13. The Spartans played with heavy hearts at Michigan on Saturday, losing 84-72 for their third defeat in the past five outings.

I run down the spread and total for this Big Ten tilt and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Michigan State on February 21.

Indiana vs Michigan State best odds

Indiana vs Michigan State picks and predictions

Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo had nothing but praise for Indiana’s standout forward Trayce Jackson-Davis heading into Tuesday’s matchup.

Jackson-Davis decimated the MSU interior in their January 22 meeting, scoring 31 points on 10 of 20 shooting while collecting 11 of 13 free throws to go along with 15 rebounds and five blocked shots.

When asked what his approach would be for this return matchup, Izzo admitted that stopping the Hoosiers’ superstar big is a tough task and that perhaps the best approach is limiting Indiana’s supporting staff, especially taking away open looks from long range when the Spartans collapse on TJD in the paint.

“Trayce is going to get his 20 points,” Izzo admitted in Monday’s press conference. “He gets enough touches. He gets enough opportunities and he’s a phenomenal player. So, the game plan won’t be just to stop Trayce.”

Izzo’s projection for Jackson-Davis’ output is almost right where bookies have his point total prop parked for this Big Ten tangle. Jackson-Davis has a points Over/Under of 21.5 vs. the Spartans, which shouldn’t be too tough to top considering Izzo’s expected approach and the problems TJD presents.

Izzo knows his lineup just doesn’t stack up well against the athletic 6-foot-9 senior. Indiana boasts one of the bigger lineups in the land overall, while MSU’s frontcourt doesn’t roll out major minutes for anyone bigger than 6-foot-9. Those forwards struggled to contain Jackson-Davis in the high post and off the dribble, where he constantly burned lumbering defenders for easy looks at the rim and drew plenty of fouls.

He’s coming off a 26-point effort in the win over Illinois (12-for-19) and has surpassed 21 points in three straight and four of his last five showings. And while the rest of Indiana’s offense fails to step up on the road, Jackson-Davis averages more points on the road (21.8 vs. 19.5 at home) this season.

My best bet: Trayce Jackson-Davis Points Over 21.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Indiana vs Michigan State spread analysis

Michigan State opened as a 2-point home favorite for this crucial conference contest and has since climbed as high as -3.5. However, early money play has trimmed this line as low as -2.5 with most books dealing MSU -3.

The Hoosiers earned a win over Illinois on the weekend, but that 3-point margin isn’t as impressive when you consider the Fighting Illini were down top player Terrence Shannon due to a concussion. Indiana hasn’t been that sharp outside of Assembly Hall either, boasting -2.8 margin of victory as a visitor compared to +18.1 average margin as a host.

Michigan State has struggled to pick up wins over marquee programs as well as win away from home, but Tom Izzo’s squad is a tough out on its own floor. The Spartans are 10-2 SU and 7-5 ATS in East Lansing, where they own +9.0 average point differential vs. -2.7 away from home.

These Big Ten foes met in Indiana back on January 22, with the Hoosiers rolling to an 82-69 victory as 4.5-point favorites. They broke away with a 45-37 difference in the second half and shot 47% from the field, including a 9-for-15 day from beyond the arc. The Spartans were flat offensively, including shooting 4 for 14 from 3-point range.

Indiana vs Michigan State Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under total hit the board at 135.5 points and has bounced between that opener and as high as 136.5.

Michigan State runs one of the slower paces in the Big Ten and leans heavily on its defense to get the job done. Izzo’s crew sits 27th in the country in KenPom’s vaunted defensive efficiency rating and is especially stingy in front of the MSU faithful, giving up just under 60 points per game inside the Breslin Center. That’s led to a 3-9 Over/Under mark as hosts this season.

The Hoosiers are also a sound defensive program, sitting 35th in defensive efficiency and boasting an elite rim protector in Trayce Jackson-Davis, who averages three blocks per contest. That allows the perimeter defenders to play up in the passing lanes and in the shorts of ball handlers, forcing foes to really work for open looks. 

Offensively, Indiana’s fortunes flip when hitting the highway. The Hoosiers enjoy a near 42% success rate from beyond the arc at home but that shooting cools to just 33% in foreign gyms, bringing with it nearly five points less per game from the perimeter. 

This IU team is still without senior guard Xavier Johnson (9.9 ppg and 4.9 assists), who is working his way back from a broken foot suffered in mid-December. He’s listed as a game-time decision, but rumblings indicate he’s still a week out from returning to action.

Overall, IU scores more than 12 points less as a visitor which has fueled a 4-5-1 O/U count away from Bloomington this season. The Hoosiers have stayed below the total in four straight games heading into Tuesday.

The January 22 meeting with MSU finished Over the closing total of 137.5 points, thanks to that sensational second half from Indiana. 

Indiana vs Michigan State betting trend to know

The Under is 6-0 in the Spartans’ last six home games while the Under is 4-0-1 in the Hoosiers’ past five road outings. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Michigan State.

Indiana vs Michigan State game info

Indiana vs Michigan State key injuries

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