Indiana vs Ohio State Picks and Predictions: Grinding Defenses Result in Low-Scoring Clash

The Indiana Hoosiers’ season is hitting the skids at the worst possible time. The Hoosiers have lost four in a row, and they’ll need to turn things around quickly or their spot on the NCAA Tournament bubble becomes more precarious by the day.

That won’t be easy in tonight’s Big Ten matchup against the sure-shooting Ohio Sate Buckeyes. Ohio State will be motivated to bounce back from its first home loss over the weekend but can the Buckeyes cover the 7-point spread?

Find out in our free college basketball betting picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Ohio State on February 21.

Indiana vs Ohio State odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Ohio State opened this Big Ten matchup as 6.5-point chalk and has been bet up to -7 as of Monday morning. The total hit the board at 134.5 and has been bet up one point to 135.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Indiana vs Ohio State predictions

• Prediction: Ohio State -7 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 135.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Under 135.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/21/2022 at 11:45 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Indiana vs Ohio State game info

• Location: Value City Arena, Columbus, OH
• Date: Monday, February 21, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Indiana at Ohio State betting preview

Injuries

Indiana: No key injuries to report.
Ohio State: No key injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Indiana is 0-9 against the spread in its last nine games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Indiana vs. Ohio State.

Indiana vs Ohio State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

After starting the season 14-4, Indiana looked like it was locked into a spot in the NCAA Tournament. Now, the Hoosiers have lost five of seven and four in a row. One more loss and they will certainly be classified as a bubble team. 

Now, Indiana defeated Ohio State 67-51 as 3.5-point favorites back on Jan. 6 but it feels like a lot has changed since then.

The Hoosiers are a team that relies on defense, ranking 17th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom ratings. But on offense, if their threes aren’t dropping, they have real issues scoring the basketball. And during this four-game losing streak, where they are also 0-4 ATS, they are shooting just 25% from beyond the arc.

Now, they face an Ohio State team that, despite coming off a loss, has done a decent job of defending the perimeter, limiting opponents to just 32% from 3-point range.

But the bigger problem for the Hoosiers is they’ll have trouble keeping up with a Buckeyes team led by E.J. Liddell (19.7 points per game), which ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency. On top of that, Ohio State is a much better free-throw shooting team. 

That, combined with the fact Ohio State will want to respond after its first home loss of the season and it should be enough to cover the chalk in this Big Ten showdown.

Prediction: Ohio State -7 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

The first meeting between these teams saw a total of just 118 points on the board and while there may be a few more points scored this time around, it won’t be enough to eclipse the total of 135.5. 

For starters, we already mentioned Indiana struggles on offense and it’s been even worse lately, managing just 59.5 points over its four-game losing streak. And while Ohio State isn’t at the same level as Indiana on defense, it ranks 91st in adjusted defensive efficiency and holds opponents to a respectable 41.2% from the field.

Even though Ohio State has an efficient offense, it's been cashing a fair amount of Unders recently. The Buckeyes are putting up 66 points per game over the last four-game with the Under cashing in each. Indiana has a strong defense and is the type of team that can slow the Buckeyes down just enough to keep this game below the total.

Prediction: Under 135.5 (-110)

Best bet

This number just looks too high for this matchup. Indiana knows that if it wants a chance to win this game, it’s going to have to grind out possessions and put in extra work on the glass. Really slow down and control the pace of the game and that won’t bother Ohio State at all.

Both Indiana and Ohio State are more than happy to play at a snail's pace. Indiana ranks 174th in adjusted tempo while Ohio State is 289th.  Bet the Under in this one with relative confidence.

Pick: Under 135.5 (-110)

Pages related to this topic