Indiana vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Mount Edey Shines in Big Ten Showdown

The No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers host the Indiana Hoosiers in Big Ten basketball action on Saturday. The Boilermakers are a team on a mission after being upset in the first round of the NCAA tournament last year, and they're in first place in the conference standings after beating Wisconsin on the road last weekend. 

The Hoosiers are .500 in conference play and are looking for revenge after getting embarrassed at home by Purdue last month. College basketball odds currently have the Hoosiers installed as 17-point road underdogs for tonight. 

Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Purdue on February 10. 

Indiana vs Purdue best odds

Indiana vs Purdue picks and predictions

I'm a bit surprised that the points total for Purdue Boilermakers center Zach Edey opened at just 22.5 for this contest. The O/U for Edey's points was set at 23.5 for Sunday's road game against Wisconsin, and the Indiana Hoosiers are significantly worse defensively than the Badgers (92nd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency compared to 31st for Wisconsin), and play at a far faster pace. 

I liked the Under on Edey's points against Wisconsin, which cashed when he was limited to 18, but I expect him to have a bigger game here. Despite having plenty of size in its frontcourt, Indiana is just 235th in the country at defending post-up situations according to ShotQualityBets. That's bad news against the Boilermakers, who post up at the fifth-highest frequency in the country and score at the 12th-highest efficiency thanks to the 7-foot-4, 300-pound Edey.

The Hoosiers are also just 197th in the country in opponent free throw rate (24.4%), with that number ballooning to 31.7% on the road. Edey averages the most free throw attempts per game in the country (10.4), and many of his bigger offensive performances have come against teams like IU, who can't defend him without fouling. 

My biggest concern about taking the Over on Edey's points in this spot is that the Boilermakers are massive 17-point favorites, and if they build an early lead, Edey could see his minutes limited. However, despite blowing out the Hoosiers by 21 points when these teams clashed last month, that didn't prevent Edey from logging 36 minutes or dropping 33 points on a season-high 23 field goal attempts.

The odds-on favorite to repeat as National Player of the Year, Edey is averaging 23.1 points per game on 63.1% shooting. With the big man registering at least 26 points in five of his last seven games, I'm not hesitating to play the Over here.

My best bet: Zach Edey Over 22.5 points (-120 at bet365)

Indiana vs Purdue same-game parlay

Zach Edey Over 22.5 points

Zach Edey Over 11.5 rebounds

Fletcher Lloyer Over 1.5 threes

+475 at bet365

Not only do I think that Edey will put up a bunch of points, but I also expect him to dominate on the glass. The Purdue center has pulled down 12+ rebounds in eight of his last 10 games and snagged 14 boards in that previous meeting against Indiana. 

Fletcher Loyer didn't attempt a single 3-pointer against the Badgers, but he usually lets it fly from deep, and the Hoosiers struggle to defend the arc. They rank outside the Top 200 in opponent 3-point percentage (34%) and outside the Top 300 in threes allowed per game (8.4).

Since the start of December, Loyer has made at least a pair of three-pointers in 11 of 16 games — including that clash in Bloomington, where he went a perfect 4 for 4 from behind the arc.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Indiana vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

This line hit the board with the spread at Purdue -17.5 and the total at 149, and both have seen modest movement, with the spread slimming to -17 and the O/U ticking down to 148.5.

The Hoosiers are coming off a 76-73 win on the road against Ohio State but it will be tough for them to make the NCAA Tournament given their current resume. They are 6-6 straight up and 7-4-1 against the spread in conference play. 

The Boilermakers are headed towards another No. 1 seed in March Madness and they've been especially dominant at home. That said, with great success comes big spreads, and they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Mackey Arena. 

While they destroyed the Hoosiers 87-66 as 9.5-point road favorites when these rivals clashed on January 16, there are reasons to be wary of backing them tonight at -17.

Keep in mind that the Boilermakers had almost identical spreads at home against Michigan and Penn State, who are both worse than Indiana. The Hoosiers have also generally played Purdue tight during the Mike Woodson era (4-0 ATS before this year), and this could be a bit of a letdown spot for the Boilermakers after beating the Badgers on the road.

Indiana vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Boilermakers have hit the team total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Purdue.

Indiana vs Purdue game info

Indiana vs Purdue key injuries

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