Indiana vs Purdue Odds, Picks and Predictions: Boilermakers Dictate Big Ten Battle

The Purdue Boilermakers will try to get revenge for one of their few losses this season when they host the Indiana Hoosiers in a Big Ten showdown on Saturday.

No. 5 Purdue (24-4) recently lost three of four, before bouncing back last weekend with an 82-55 win over Ohio State. No. 17 Indiana (19-9) has dropped two of three, most recently losing 80-65 on the road to the Michigan State Spartans. 

The Hoosiers pulled out the first meeting between these teams in an unexpectedly high-scoring contest. We’ll break down what to expect from the rematch in our free college basketball picks and predictions for Indiana vs. Purdue on February 25.

Indiana vs Purdue best odds

Indiana vs Purdue picks and predictions

Recent slump aside, Purdue has been one of the best teams in the country all year long. The Boilermakers have put together a great season behind an efficient but slow-paced offense that grinds out wins while shutting teams down on the other end.

Purdue can do this thanks to the presence of junior center Zach Edey. The big man is averaging 22.1 points and 12.7 rebounds per game, something virtually no college team is equipped to handle. 

Edey contributes to the offensive efficiency in two main ways: he shoots 61.9% from the field, and he is the main reason why the Boilermakers are one of the best rebounding teams in the country. Purdue leads the country in total rebounding percentage, snagging 58.5% of all available boards.

Edey also keys one of the best defensive units in the nation. His 2.4 blocks per game help Purdue hold teams to just 61.6 points per game on 41.2% shooting. Even in recent losses to the Maryland Terrapins and the Northwestern Wildcats, neither team made it to 70 points.

That made Purdue’s loss to Indiana earlier this month somewhat unusual. The 79-74 game was surprisingly high scoring for a clash between these two teams, both of whom typically play strong defense. Indiana may not be quite at the talent level of the Boilermakers on either end of the court, but the Hoosiers give up an average of just 67.4 points per game themselves. 

Indiana also likes to play at a pretty average pace, so one would expect a game between these two teams to be somewhat slow and played with solid defense. Instead, both teams shot over 50% from the field in combining for 153 points, well above the 138 total on the game.

This time around, oddsmakers are still setting a total of 138.5 points on the night. While Indiana and Purdue may have easily hit the Over in their first meeting, I think that total is actually too high when you consider how these two squads typically play. 

With Purdue at home, expect it to take more control over the pace of play in order to get revenge for its loss at Indiana earlier this month. We should also see the shooting come down to Earth a bit, as both teams went far above their season averages against defensive units that usually bring those numbers down.

As a result, I expect a game played in the 60s, not the 70s. That means hitting the Under, which is my bet for tonight’s game.

My best bet: Under 138.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Indiana vs Purdue spread analysis

Purdue opened tonight’s game as a 6.5-point favorite. The spread briefly bounced up to 7.5 points, but as of late Saturday morning, the consensus line is once again Purdue -6.5.

Both teams have been mediocre against the spread this year. Indiana has gone 13-14-1 ATS, while the Boilermakers are 12-14-2 ATS on the season. It’s worth noting that the Hoosiers have been particularly bad for bettors on the road, however, going just 2-8-1 ATS in true away games.

Even if you were worried about Purdue’s recent run of play, Indiana is also going through its own struggles. Both teams have suffered surprising losses as of late, though the Boilermakers' defeats have all come on the road. At home, Purdue continues to find ways to win, and for the most part, has done so easily. Each of Purdue’s last four home games has resulted in wins of at least 14 points.

When you look at overall resumes, Purdue is simply the better team here. The Boilermakers have also played extremely well at home, and Edey showed he can dominate against Indiana in the first matchup, scoring 33 points with 18 rebounds. 

I don’t love the size of the spread, but I’m still going to take Purdue and lay the points in what should be a solid home win for the Boilermakers.

Indiana vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

The total for this matchup opened at 138.5 points. It has roughly stayed there, though you can now find a few books that have removed the hook and put the Over/Under at a flat 138.

I’ve already broken down above why I think the Under is the smart play tonight. These are not teams that typically score a ton of points, and they played unusually poor defense (or, perhaps, surprisingly efficient offense) in the first meeting. That situation should not repeat itself, bringing down the scoring to something more typical for Purdue.

Indiana hasn’t been running up the score as of late, either. The Hoosiers have hit this Under in four of their past five games. Even the one exception was far from a shootout, as they hit a total of 145 points in the loss to Michigan State this week.

Purdue plays some of the slowest basketball in the country, averaging just 66.1 possessions per game. Indiana isn’t much faster, generating 70.2 possessions per night. Unless these teams are once again absurdly efficient — and both of these squads usually play well on the defensive end, making that unlikely — they won’t sniff the total. The Under is definitely the play tonight.

Indiana vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Under is 4-1 in Indiana’s last five games overall. Find more college basketball betting trends for Indiana vs. Purdue.

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