Iowa State vs Kansas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Wilson Controls Boards for Jayhawks

The Big 12 Tournament is heating up as we see the Kansas Jayhawks and Iowa State Cyclones meeting for a spot in the championship game.

ISU was dead in the water against Baylor trailing by double digits at the midway point of the second half before switching gears and bullying the Bears en route to victory.The win was the third straight one over Baylor this season for the Cyclones, an impressive feat for any team. 

Kansas continues to roll. It handled West Virginia by 17 points yesterday and looked like it barely got out of second gear. However, the Jayhawks had to deal without the services of Head Coach Bill Self, who was announced from the Big 12 tournament for health reasons. 

What's the best bet for this one? Find out in our college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas vs. Iowa State. 

Iowa State vs Kansas best odds

Iowa State vs Kansas picks and predictions

The most trustworthy player on the floor in this entire game has to be Jalen Wilson. His Kansas career is as decorated as any recent college basketball star. Now he's one game away from having the chance to add a jewel to that career, and I'm backing him to perform. My best bet here is Jalen Wilson Over Rebounds.

Wilson's rebounding props have been one of my favorite bets throughout the season, cashing at what feels close to a 75% rate. 

His work on the glass has ticked up lately, averaging 10.5 rebounds per game over the last two games and 10 rebounds this season against Iowa State. A prevailing theme and story in the wake of ISU's win against Baylor were what the Cyclones did on the backboard. They outrebounded the Bears by a near 3-1 clip. Wilson knows this and it will add some juice to attack the backboard early. 

If you're looking for real fun, you can mix and match to pair this with his points for a solid same-game parlay. Something that directly relates to Wilson's rebounds is his "put-back" grade. He's among the best in college basketball at getting second-chance points on the offensive glass.

In fact, his 1.4 points per possession on put-backs ranks him as the sixth-best offensive rebound scorer in the Big 12. If he's getting it done on the glass, he will likely see an uptick in his points, meaning that these two are directly correlated. 

Jalen Wilson is playing some of the best basketball of his career right now, saying something about how illustrious it has been. Wilson has a way of doing all the little things for his team that need to be done to get wins. Today's "thing" is getting rebounds, so expect him to lead the herd there tonight because he's done that all season. 

My best bet: Jalen Wilson Over 7.5 rebounds (-120 at bet365)

Iowa State vs Kansas spread analysis

I lean on Kansas here because of the aforementioned cultural aspect of things. The Jayhawks are undoubtedly more talented, but Iowa State has beaten many teams more talented than them — including this one.

That's the thing that gives you pause from a spread perspective. The Cyclones will battle some, then battle some more which means you're likely to get a better number in-game than the 4.5 points you're seeing right now.

My projections make this a 2-point win for Rock Chalk. I'm banking on Jalen Wilson to take over the game late and for Kansas' individual talent to take over in the second half. I hope to get a live number close to a PK. If I do, I'll jump all over it. 

Iowa State vs Kansas Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Over fairly heavily here, and we'll place a unit on the Over of 129.5 at bet365.

My projections make this game 134, and everything else is at play. For starters, there will be a focus on Kansas to increase the pace in this game. Baylor did it with success at times yesterday, and though it didn't win, it built a lead that way.

The best way to attack Iowa State is to keep it from settling in the halfcourt. It has struggled mightily defending in transition, allowing 1.05 points per possession which is one of the highest in the league. We've already written about it above, but players like Jalen Wilson, Gradey Dick, and DeJuan Harris are well-suited to take advantage of this. 

Each of these teams has a recent run of Unders, but that's given us a discounted number that's too low. Aside from one team pushing the pace and having success there, we can also rely on some late-game fouling in what will undoubtedly be a close game late. 

Iowa State vs Kansas betting trend to know

Jalen Wilson has averaged 10 rebounds in two meetings against Iowa State this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Kansas.

Iowa State vs Kansas game info

Iowa State vs Kansas key injuries

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