The No. 25 Iowa State Cyclones head to Normon to face the Oklahoma Sooners in NCAA basketball action on Wednesday night.
Oklahoma is unranked and coming off a loss but this is a strong squad that won't be a pushover on its home floor. College basketball odds opened with the Sooners as 3.5-point home favorites before shortening to -3.
Check out my best college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma below.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma best odds
Iowa State vs Oklahoma picks and predictions
Iowa State's only two defeats this season were blowout losses against Iowa on the road and Connecticut on neutral ground. The Cyclones scored just 56 and 53 points, respectively, in those contests and it was the same things that ruined them: going cold from the arc and an inability to get to the line.
Iowa State ranks just 291st in the country with 15.2 free throw attempts per game and they took 10 attempts from the charity stripe against UConn and just seven vs. Iowa. They also went a combined 6-35 (17.1%) from long range against those teams.
The same issues could plague the Cyclones again with the Oklahoma Sooners holding foes to just 26.8% shooting from beyond the arc (seventh-best mark in the country) and picking up just 14.0 fouls per game (16th).
On the other side of the ball, the Sooners are sixth in the country with a sizzling 57.3 effective field goal percentage and their highly-efficient offense allows them to pick up points even with limited possessions.
Iowa State limits opponents to a 45.7 EFG% but that number jumps up to 52.2% on the road. With the Cyclones coming off a massive win against Baylor at home, fade them in a letdown spot here.
My best bet: Oklahoma -3 (-110 at bet365)
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Iowa State vs Oklahoma spread analysis
Iowa State is on a three-game winning streak and is fresh off a 77-62 home win against No. 19 Baylor. The Cyclones limited the Bears to 38% shooting and forced 19 turnovers while shooting a sizzling 50% from the field themselves.
They also had impressive neutral site victories against North Carolina and Villanova earlier this season and have been one of the stingiest defensive teams in the country. They are 10th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom but have struggled on the other end of the floor and rank 113th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
The Sooners are coming off a razor-close 70-69 home loss to No. 6 Texas. They have three losses in their last six games but all of those defeats came against Quadrant 1 foes and their road defeat to Villanova came down to the wire.
The Sooners are 21st in the country in 2-point percentage (56.3%) while ranking 10th in 3-point percentage (39.4%). Oklahoma is 32nd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 49th on defense.
This game could hinge on Iowa State's ability to pressure Oklahoma's ball handlers. The Cyclones have the highest opponent turnover rate in the country (30.1%) while the Sooners rank just 240th in turnovers per possession (19.3%).
Although the Cyclones are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these Big 12 foes, the Sooners have won five of the last six games outright with each of those victories coming by at least six points.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma Over/Under analysis
The Over/Under of 124.5 is the lowest of the day but given the sluggish pace of both teams and how strong ISU is on defense, it makes sense.
The Cyclones are 273rd in the nation in adjusted tempo while the Sooners are 337th, and the Cyclones rank seventh in scoring defense with just 57.3 ppg allowed.
That said, with how efficient the Sooners' offense has been, the Over has cashed in five of their last six games.
Oklahoma is led by guard Grant Sherfield who averages 18.3 ppg on 47/52/88 shooting splits while brothers Tanner and Jacob Groves combine for 20.9 ppg on 53.3% shooting. Sherfield has been on fire lately and has scored more than 20 points in five of his last six games.
The Cyclones have been inconsistent on offense. They have three players averaging double-digits in points led by Jaren Holmes (13.5 ppg) but those three players combine to shoot just 39.7% from the floor. Although the Over has cashed in each of their last two games, that snapped a streak of six consecutive contests where the Under hit.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma betting trend to know
The home team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these conference opponents. Find more College basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Oklahoma .
Iowa State vs Oklahoma game info
| Location: | Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
