The college basketball betting board for Tuesday features four matchups between ranked teams, including a Big-12 showdown between the Iowa State Cyclones and Texas Longhorns.
The No. 23 ranked Cyclones have dropped five of their last seven games and it won't be easy to turn that around on the road against No. 8 Texas. The Longhorns are installed as 7-point home favorites, with the Over/Under currently listed at 136.5.
Here are my best free college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Texas on February 21.
Iowa State vs Texas best odds
Iowa State vs Texas picks and predictions
Texas Longhorns guard Tyrese Hunter actually played for the Iowa State Cyclones last season and was the hero during March Madness when he went 7-11 from beyond the arc to upset LSU in the opening round.
However, Hunter shot just 24.2% from deep the rest of the season and his inconsistency continues to be an issue after transferring to Texas. The sophomore looked very sharp at the start of the season but has really cooled down lately and is averaging just 6.8 points per game over his last four contests.
The Cyclones do a good job of closing down shooters on the perimeter, as they limit conference foes to just 6.6 threes per game at a 32.1% clip. Hunter has knocked down more than one 3-pointer in just one of his last nine games and is shooting 27.3% from deep over that span. Take the Under 1.5 on his total from distance.
My best bet: Tyrese Hunter Under 1.5 threes (-115 at bet365)
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Iowa State vs Texas spread analysis
The Big 12 might be the best conference in college hoops and the Longhorns are in second place in the standings with an impressive 10-4 mark. They are coming off an overtime victory against Oklahoma to bounce back from a road loss against Texas Tech.
Considering that the Sooners and Red Raiders are at the bottom of the conference standings, it's a bit shocking that the Longhorns struggled against them. Now they face an ISU team that's 8-6 in conference play.
When these teams previously clashed on January 17 in Ames, the Cyclones pulled away in the second half to win by a final score of 78-67. There were a few areas in that game where the Cyclones excelled, but they will likely see regression tonight.
Iowa State turned the ball over just six times in that game but ranks 255th in the country in turnover rate (19%), with the number rising to 21.1% over their last three contests. Expect more mistakes tonight against a Longhorns team that does an excellent job of pressuring opposing ball handlers and is 24th in the country in opponent turnover rate (21.8%).
The Cyclones also took 30 free-throw attempts in that previous meeting but average just 15.7 FTA per game on the season while shooting 67% from the stripe.
The Cyclones have struggled ever since beating the Longhorns in that meeting. They've gone just 3-6 straight up and 2-7 against the spread since then and are coming off a 61-55 loss to Kansas State on the road.
Iowa State has been locking down opponents and ranks seventh in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. However, the Cyclones have struggled on the other end of the floor and are 87th in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Guards Jaren Holmes and Gabe Kalscheur lead ISU with 13.3 and 12.4 points per game, but also shoot just a combined 40% from the floor.
Starting guard Caleb Grill (10 ppg, 1.3 steals per game) will be a game-time decision after missing Saturday's contest. However, the Cyclones got a boost from the recent return of Aljaz Kunc, who missed more than a month with a broken finger and has averaged 16.7 ppg in his last three games.
The Longhorns have a deep lineup anchored by point guard Marcus Carr who leads the team with 17.1 points, 4.0 assists, and 1.7 steals per game.
Carr pilots a unit that is 19th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency while ranking 39th on defense.
Iowa State vs Texas Over/Under analysis
A total of 135.5 is the highest we've seen for a Cyclones conference game since January 14 when they faced off against Kansas.
That said, this number is the lowest we've seen for the Longhorns in quite some time as well but is still a bit higher than the O/U of 133.5 in the first meeting of the season between these two programs.
The Cyclones defend extremely well while struggling to score and playing at a snail's pace, which are all ingredients that result in lower-scoring contests.
Texas is on the opposite end of the spectrum and is 25th in the country in scoring (79.7 ppg) while ranking 44th in the average length of possession (16.3 seconds). Although the Longhorns' scoring has dipped to 76.9 ppg in conference play, their defense has also regressed, leading to 73.7 ppg allowed.
The Longhorns are not a good perimeter shooting team and prefer to get close to the basket where they rank 29th in the country in 2-point percentage (54.7%). It will be interesting to see if they can get to those spots tonight against a Cyclones team that tries to funnel opposing shooters to the arc.
As good as the Cyclones have been on defense, they rank just 150th in the country in opponent 2-point percent (49.3%), with that number surging to 52.4% over their last three games.
Iowa State vs Texas betting trend to know
The Cyclones are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa State vs. Texas.
Iowa State vs Texas game info
| Location: | Moody Center, Austin, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Longhorn Network |
