The Iowa State Cyclones started the season on a 12-game winning streak. Since that streak, Iowa State has gone 5-6 and is currently 16-6 on the season. Now they’ll look to take on the Texas Longhorns, as large underdogs.
Meanwhile, Texas has won three of its last four games but is coming off a 77-64 loss to Texas Tech. That was an emotional loss for Texas, with head coach Chris Beard back on the sidelines for the Longhorns.
Can Texas overcome that Texas Tech loss and respond well against Iowa State? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa State vs. Texas on Saturday, February 5.
Iowa State vs Texas odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Texas opened as a 7-point favorite but has already jumped to as high as -8.5 at some outlets. Meanwhile, the total has also jumped from 120.5 at open to 122.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Iowa State vs Texas predictions
Predictions made on 2/5/2022 at 8:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa State vs Texas game info
• Location: Frank C Erwin Center, Austin, TX
• Date: Saturday, February 5, 2022
• Tip-off: 2:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Longhorn Network
Iowa State at Texas betting preview
Injuries
Iowa State: No injuries to report.
Texas: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Cyclones are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa State vs. Texas.
Iowa State vs Texas picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
If you like defense, this is the game for you. Texas and Iowa State are both in the Top 12 when it comes to defensive efficiency according to KenPom.
The Longhorns allow an effective field goal percentage of 45.7% while forcing turnovers 24.8% of the time. That’s basically a turnover every four possessions, which is really elite.
Opponents are only hitting 31.2% of threes and are 45.2% from inside the arc on the season. The Longhorns have been a bit lucky, however, with teams shooting just 62.4% from the foul line against them this year.
Iowa State, on the other hand, could win a bunch of offensive rebounds, with Texas allowing 29% on the offensive glass this season. That’s the one area where Texas has struggled on the defensive end. Iowa State actually grabs 30.3% offensive rebounds, so there’s reason to believe it can earn second chances in this game.
The Cyclones are also shooting an effective field goal percentage of 50.8%, but are hitting just 32.5% from three on the season. Inside, Iowa State is hitting 51.9% and the Cyclones will look to score inside more than outside.
Defensively, Iowa State is holding opponents to a 46.9% effective field goal percentage while also forcing a high amount of turnovers, at 25.8%. Because of the aggressiveness, fouling has become an issue for Iowa State, but it comes with the territory of looking to force steals.
Opponents are hitting just 27.6% from deep and 50.1% from inside the arc on the season. Iowa State doesn’t want to put Texas on the line, knowing Texas is shooting 75.8% there. The Longhorns are also an effective offensive rebounding team, earning 32.3% offensive rebounds.
In a predictably low-scoring game, I like the underdog in this one. Iowa State should be able to keep this game close with solid perimeter defense. The fouling will need to be toned down a bit, but overall, Iowa State’s defense is slightly better than Texas’ analytically, and if that continues tonight, Iowa State will cover.
Prediction: Iowa State +8.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
I know the first game went completely bonkers between these two teams. But I’d like to think that having some game tape between both of these teams should help the Under.
At the end of the day, we’re talking about two of the top defenses in the nation going up against one another. Both teams will have to do a better job of limiting second chances and Iowa State certainly needs to watch out for their fouling.
But overall, I like this game to go Under the total. Right now, the number is spiking, so let it continue to rise and fire on the Under right before game time.
Prediction: Under 122.5 (-110)
Best bet
If this game is going to be really low-scoring, I like my chances with Iowa State getting 8.5 points.
The defense has been remarkable this season, and let’s not forget that Iowa State already defeated Texas earlier this season by nine points.
The Cyclones are always hanging around in each game and are tough. There’s no quit in this team. I’ll take them against the spread as the best bet.
Pick: Iowa State +8.5 (-110)
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