The No. 24 Iowa Hawkeyes (22-8, 12-7) will put their five-game win streak on the line tonight when they travel to Champaign to take on the No. 20 Illinois Fighting Illini (21-8, 14-5).
This Big Ten showdown, which sees the home side as slight college basketball betting favorites, will pit two of the best players in the conference against each other — the Illini's Kofi Cockburn and the Hawkeyes' Keegan Murray.
Which of the two will be able to bring home the win for their team in the final game of the regular season? Find out now in our free college basketball picks and predictions between Iowa and Illinois.
Iowa vs Illinois odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Illinois opened as three-point favorites and has since moved to -4. The total opened at 153.5 and has since moved to 155.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.
Iowa vs Illinois predictions
Predictions made on 3/6/2022 at 3:16 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Iowa vs Illinois game info
• Location: State Farm Center, Champaign, Illinois
• Date: Sunday, March 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 4:30 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
Iowa at Illinois betting preview
Injuries
Iowa: No injuries to report.
Illinois: Jacob Grandison G (Questionable, Benjamin-Bosmans Verdonk F (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Iowa has played 4-1 to the Under in their last five games. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Illinois.
Iowa vs Illinois picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
In college basketball, it's often said that having the most talented player on the court can win you games outright. Sunday's matchup has no clear answer to that sentiment as Keegan Murray (23.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg) and Kofi Cockburn (21.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg) are both some of the country's best players this year.
Murray has led Iowa in scoring in all but four of its 30 games and has played a particularly large role in the Hawkeyes' recent hot streak, during which they have won eight straight — all by double digits.
Murray is a lanky 6-foot-8 forward that uses a mix of strength and finesse near the rim while mixing in flashes of athleticism in transition and having a more than respectable shot from beyond the arc (38.5%). Keegan is joined by two sharpshooters in Jordan Bohannon (11.2 points per game, 38.2% 3P%) and his twin brother Kris Murray (10.2 ppg, 40.2% 3P%), as well as Patrick McCaffrey (10.5 ppg).
With that much scoring talent, it's unsurprising that the Hawkeyes are fifth in the nation in scoring (83.6 points per game) and rank fourth in KenPom offensive efficiency.
Kofi Cockburn is a 7-foot, 285lb monster that has an unmistakable interior presence and plays with a rare level of intensity. Cockburn is complemented on the outside by Alfonso Plummer, who is averaging 15.1 ppg on 42% shooting from deep (on 7.3 attempts per game).
Fifth-year senior Trent Frazier keeps the offensive engine rolling, leading the team in assists while also chipping in 12.5 ppg. Although they are not as offensively elite as Iowa, they are no slouches either, averaging 76.3 ppg (54th) and ranking 19th in KenPom offense.
The Fighting Illini make up for that by being a much better team on the defensive side of the floor. Illinois ranks 33rd in KenPom defensive efficiency and has held opposing 3-point shooters to just 32.7% during conference play, the second-best mark in the Big Ten.
Cockburn and the rest of the Illini are particularly great at limiting shots at the rim, with opponents only taking shots there 27.2% of the time — the sixth-best mark in all of college basketball. However, when opponents have gotten those shots off, they have been good looks with Illinois surrendering a 60.6% field goal percentage (255th).
Given that Iowa is only around average in terms of shot volume at the rim and its shoots the second-most threes in the conference, Illinois should have the edge here.
Prediction: Illinois -4 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The total of 155.5 is certainly a larger one, but for good reason. In their first contest, the teams put up a combined 170 points. Both teams also regularly play over the number, with Illinois having a 17-12 to the Over this season and Iowa sporting an even better record of 19-10-1. In fact, Iowa's offense regularly invites larger totals, as it has seen only nine totals below 150 all season.
But in that regard, it's possible the market has caught on and has possibly even overcorrected. Iowa has now played 4-1 to the Under in its last five against an average total of 155.5. This is in stark contrast to the 14 conference games prior, during which it went 10-4 to the Over on an average total of 149.5.
Given that the total has already moved two points higher, there's even more room to operate for a potential Under.
Prediction: Under 155.5 (-110)
Best bet
Both Iowa and Illinois have put together fantastic regular seasons, and Sunday's game between the two has the makings of a hell of a bookend to them. Keegan Murray, Kofi Cockburn, and their supporting casts are all more than capable of making a lot of noise in the upcoming Big Ten tournament — and the Big Dance shortly after.
But as for Sunday's matchup, we may see Illinois take care of business again much like it did when it beat Iowa on the road earlier this year.
The allure of riding the hot team is obviously tempting, but Illinois is just a more well-rounded team and it has managed to put together an arguably more impressive season than Iowa despite facing a large chunk of missed time across the rotation.
Illinois has managed better against ranked opponents as well, managing a 3-4 record and losing three of those games by single digits. Iowa, on the other hand, has put together a 1-4 record against ranked opponents, including an ugly 20 point loss to Iowa State and another double-digit loss to Purdue.
The Illini will bring the fight on Sunday.
Pick: Illinois -4.5 (-110)
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