Iowa Hawkeyes All-American guard Caitlin Clark continues her trek toward history when her Lady Hawkeyes travel to a sold-out Xfinity Center for a Big Ten showdown with the Maryland Lady Terrapins.
The No. 3-ranked Hawkeyes are in a three-way tie for the top spot in the Big Ten and meet a hungry Terrapins program hoping to end a three-game losing streak and keep their dwindling Women’s NCAA March Madness tournament hopes alive.
Who will win Saturday’s Women’s Big Ten conference tilt? Join me as I look closer at the college basketball odds with free college basketball picks for Iowa and Maryland.
Iowa vs Maryland best odds
| Iowa | Maryland | |
|---|---|---|
| -575 | Moneyline | +425 |
| -10.5 (-110) | Spread | +10.5 (-110) |
| Over 169.5 (-110) | Total | Under 169.5 (-110) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings on February 3, 2024.
Iowa vs Maryland picks and predictions
The Iowa Hawkeyes have never defeated the Maryland Terrapins at College Park in a Big Ten conference game.
There’s no time like the present to end their seven-game away losing streak for Iowa; Maryland has dropped three straight and could be without leading scorer Shyanne Sellers. Her status is up in the air after missing the Terps' last game with a knee injury.
None of their previous seven meetings at Maryland have been particularly close; the Lady Hawkeyes have lost seven straight to the Lady Terps at Xfinity Center, with the last six losses coming by double digits.
The once-dominant Terrapins' defense isn’t the same as in the past. They don’t have the size down low, they don’t block shots, and their 8.1 swipes per game are their lowest since 2019.
But as inconsistent as their defense has been, the Hawkeyes' defense has been just as shaky, and Maryland can certainly do enough to stay within this 11.5-point spread.
The Lady Hawkeyes' defense yields 82.9 points per game. They surrendered 74 points earlier this week at Northwestern and 100 points in overtime at Ohio State. Maryland might have recent struggles scoring the rock, but they’ve put up 71+ in every home game this season and should be able to get to that mark tonight.
Maryland is 6-2 ATS and 8-2 overall at home this season. They’ve played well at Xfinity Center until recently, and that’s because their defense has been unable to slow teams down early.
While they won’t slow Iowa’s offense down, the Hawkeyes defense is the worst the Terps have faced in quite a while and won’t be able to stop Maryland either.
Finally, Iowa is 2-6 ATS as the away team and hasn’t won a game at Maryland in their previous seven tries. The Terps have struggled to win games, but they'll have plenty of motivation to take down the Hawkeyes in front of a sold-out crowd jeering Clark’s every miscue.
Look for a great game between two highly competitive rivals and Maryland to stay within this double-digit spread.
My best bet: Maryland +11.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Caitlin Clark prop pick
Xfinity Center is sold out because that’s the case wherever Caitlin Clark goes. The only difference is the pro-Terp crowd isn’t going to roll out the red carpet for her like some other schools have for Clark this season.
Clark’s thing is to score the basketball and she’s scored 33+ in three of her past five matchups and 10 of the Hawkeyes' 22 games. She’s a scoring machine who can light it up from anywhere, but she’s up against a rival who held her to just 18 points in her previous game last February at Xfinity Center.
Opposing programs have tried everything to stop Clark, but in February 2023, Maryland played a box-and-one defense and had someone hounding Clark throughout the game. That worked like a charm as they held Clark to just 5-15 shooting.
The Lady Terps boast a tall backcourt, and Sellers is a 6-foot-2 guard with length and is more than a capable defender. She’s also a physical player, and Clark has some trouble against those types of players. I fully expect Sellers to suit up, and if she does, it will be difficult for Clark to clear this huge number at FanDuel.
Clark is under tremendous pressure and it's beginning to show a bit. She was 3-for-12 from downtown at Northwestern but still finished with 35 points, and the Wildcats crowd adored her.
That won’t be the case for Clark tonight, as she’s up against a Terps team that knows how to stop her from hanging a considerable number in what will likely be the most hostile crowd she's seen all season.
Caitlin Clark prop: Under 33.5 points (-114 at FanDuel)
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Iowa vs Maryland spread and Over/Under analysis
FanDuel is one of just a few sportsbooks hanging numbers for this contest. It opened at Maryland +8.5 but that number immediately jumped to Maryland +10.5. It didn’t take long to climb to +11.5, likely because of Sellers' status.
The Terrapins are 3-6 over their previous nine overall and 3-2 over their last five at Xfinity Center. As mentioned, they’ve owned the Hawkeyes at home since 2015, and getting 11.5 points with or without Sellers is too many for a closely contested brief rivalry.
The total opened at 169.5 with plenty of juice on both sides of the number. Neither side plays much defense, but the total is likely an in-game wager for me tonight. It's hard to commit to a total without knowing Sellers' status.
My lean tonight is for Maryland to pull off an upset. Terps guard Jakia Brown-Turner has scored 20+ in her last four and Iowa won’t be able to stop her from scoring 20+ tonight.
If Maryland deploys a box-and-one on Clark, the Hawkeyes don’t have enough supporting offense to outscore Maryland if Saturday night’s star attraction rides the struggle bus like I believe she will tonight.
Iowa vs Maryland betting trend to know
Maryland is 7-0 over their last seven meetings at home against Iowa. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Maryland.
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Iowa vs Maryland game info
| Location: | Xfinity Center, College Park, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, February 3, 2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Iowa vs Maryland key injuries
Iowa: No key injuries to report.
Maryland: Shyanne Sellers G (Questionable).
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