There’s plenty of drama at the bottom of the Big Ten.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers and Iowa Hawkeyes wrap the regular season in Lincoln, with the winner securing the No. 15 seed and the final ticket to the Big Ten tournament.
With the way the Huskers pack the paint, I’m looking to Iowa guard Josh Dix to be a “hawkeye” from beyond the arc for the Hawkeyes.
He’s the focus of my best Iowa vs. Nebraska predictions and college basketball picks for March 9.
Iowa vs Nebraska prediction
My best bet
Josh Dix Over 2.5 3-pointers (+145 at bet365)
My analysis
The Iowa Hawkeyes let a potential upset over Michigan State slip away Thursday and now their backs are against the wall this afternoon.
Iowa is a 7.5-point road underdog in Lincoln, with game script calling for the Hawkeyes to be playing from behind against a Nebraska Cornhuskers team that doesn’t give up anything easy inside. That pack-the-paint gameplan does, however, leave a lot of space on the perimeter.
Nebraska allows the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game in the country, with foes launching up 28.5 triples per game inside Pinnacle Bank Arena. That gameplan along with the game script calls for a busy day from distance for Iowa’s outside shooters.
The Hawkeyes aren’t shy about shooting from long range, with the fourth highest 3-point attempt rate in the conference. Iowa ranks 25th in 3-point percentage in the land, averaging just under 10 triples per game (37th).
Dix is a big part of that perimeter success. He’s hitting at almost 43% from deep on the season and averages five shots from outside an outing.
He’s coming off a 3-for-5 night from beyond the arc against Michigan State (the top 3-point defense in the Big Ten) and had a massive day from outside when Iowa played Nebraska back on January 7. Dix finished 7-for-10 from distance and collected 31 points in the overtime win.
Player projections for Dix call for another high volume of 3-point looks against the Huskers, with models calling for close to three triples on the day. That ceiling is even higher considering the matchup and game situation, with some forecast at four makes from downtown.
Iowa vs Nebraska same-game parlay (SGP)
Josh Dix 3+ 3-pointers
Josh Dix 20+ points
Payton Sandfort 3+ assists
Dix dropped seven triples on the Huskers in their last meeting and won’t be shy about letting it fly in this finale.
Dix scored 31 against Nebraska in their first meeting. If he gets hot again, a 20-point performance is in the cards.
Sandfort will be the focus of the Huskers defense and he’ll dish to open perimeter players for wide-open triples. Player projections call for 3+ assists.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Iowa vs Nebraska odds
Iowa vs Nebraska live odds
Iowa vs Nebraska opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +6.5 | Nebraska -6.5
- Moneyline: Iowa +278 | Nebraska -343
- Over/Under: Over 155.5 | Under 155.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa vs Nebraska betting trend to know
Iowa has only won outright for the moneyline in one of their last 10 away games (-6.90 Units/-69% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Nebraska.
How to watch Iowa vs Nebraska
| Location | Pinnacle Bank Arena, Lincoln, NE |
| Date | Sunday, 3-9-2025 |
| Tip-off | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Iowa vs Nebraska key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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