New Year’s Day sees the Iowa Hawkeyes (8-5) take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (10-3) in Big Ten hoops action.
Iowa will look to end a cold streak after losing its last two games and three of its last four. Fran McCaffery appears to have his work cut out for him in order to turn things around.
Penn State has won four games in a row heading into Sunday. Can Micah Shrewsberry’s squad make it five in a row?
Check out our free college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa vs. Penn State on January 1 to find out.
Iowa vs Penn State best odds
Iowa vs Penn State picks and predictions
Fran McCaffery’s bunch is in a bad spot after dropping back-to-back games to Illinois and Nebraska. Is this team in a hole it can’t get out of, or are there better days ahead?
Iowa welcomed back forward Kris Murray against the Cornhuskers, which is welcome news for a struggling squad. Murray leads the team in both scoring (19.1 ppg) and rebounding (9.9) and is the focal point of the offensive attack.
The Hawkeyes have dropped to 47th overall in KenPom, checking in at 22nd in offensive efficiency and 98th in defensive efficiency. The fact that they rank so much higher on the offensive end should be no surprise to basketball fans familiar with McCaffery’s work.
Penn State is off to a solid 10-3 start to the year, winning four straight games and looking to advance to 2-1 in Big Ten play. The Nittany Lions are 43rd overall in KenPom, ranking 38th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Jalen Pickett is the star of the show, leading the team in points (16.1), rebounds (7.4), and assists (7.6) per game in a fantastic all-around showing. Second-leading scorer Seth Lundy is expected to return to the lineup for this contest, and the team will be glad to have his 13.8 ppg and 7.0 rebounds back in the lineup.
My best bet will be on the Over in this matchup. Penn State has been a terrific shooting team this season, cashing in a red-hot 38.4% from 3-point range (25th nationally). The Nittany Lions are also proficient from the stripe, knocking down 76.9% of their free throws (20th). Iowa averages 81.2 ppg and loves to get out and run, ranking 44th in KenPom’s adjusted tempo metric.
Iowa’s all-offense approach is always friendly for points, and the pace-up environment should allow a great shooting team at Penn State to put up some points as well.
My best bet: Over 145.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
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Iowa vs Penn State spread analysis
This is expected to be a tight matchup, as Penn State currently ranges from -2 to -2.5, depending on the book.
For the Hawkeyes to cover, they’d need to get over their road woes. McCaffery’s squad is 0-4 against the spread in its last four road games. They’ve also struggled when playing good competition, going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning straight up record.
This all makes me favor the Penn State side in this matchup. The Nittany Lions have been a great bet recently against teams with a winning record, going 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 such games. This series has typically been dominated by the home team (7-2-2 ATS run in the last 11 meetings for the home team). I don’t see that changing here.
Iowa welcomed Murray back to the lineup against Nebraska and still looked miserable in a 16-point loss, so I’ll need to see improvement before trusting the Hawkeyes are out of their funk. Penn State has won four straight and is boosted by the likely return of Lundy, who is one of the team’s star players and an impact contributor in many ways.
Iowa vs Penn State Over/Under analysis
Neither team has been great at cashing the Over this season, but I’m inclined to believe that’s created some value in the betting market, as I don’t expect those runs to continue. Iowa is 6-7 to the Over this season, while Penn State is 5-8.
Iowa scores at a clip of 81.2 points per contest. Aside from Murray, Filip Reebraca (14.2 ppg), Patrick McCaffery (13.4 ppg), and Tony Perkins (10.8 ppg) average double figures. This isn’t quite the same team we’re used to seeing with Iowa, as this year’s team is making just 32% of its shots from downtown.
Penn State averaged 75.5 ppg, primarily thanks to its hot shooting from beyond the arc. The Nittany Lions shoot 29.1 three-pointers per game (11th) and make 11.2 of them (5th), which is an impressive display of both volume and efficiency.
Neither team grades out well in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, where Penn State (59th) and Iowa (98th) both show deficiencies. There is still an O/U of 145.5 available in the market, and I’d play the Over up to 147.5.
Iowa vs Penn State betting trend to know
The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six Sunday games. Find more College basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. Penn State.
Iowa vs Penn State game info
| Location: | Bryce Jordan Center, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, January 1, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 5:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Big Ten Network |
Iowa vs Penn State key injuries
Iowa: None.
Penn State: F Seth Lundy (Probable).
