Iowa vs South Carolina Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Gamecocks Rule the Roost in Final Four Matchup

If you need further evidence that the 2023 South Carolina Gamecocks are in the running for “Greatest Women’s College Hoops Team Ever”, check out their point spread for tonight's Final Four matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

No. 2 Iowa, which boasts recently-named Naismith Player of the Year Caitlin Clark, is a 12-point underdog on the Women's March Madness odds board against the undefeated Gamecocks with a ticket to the National Championship up for grabs.

I break down that big spread, as well as the Over/Under for this women’s Final Four showdown, and give my best college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa vs. South Carolina on March 31.

Iowa vs South Carolina odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings on March 31, 2023.

Iowa vs South Carolina picks and predictions

The spread for this game says South Carolina but the total screams Iowa, with the Hawkeyes running out one of the fastest paces in women’s hoops and owning the top-ranked offense in the land.

South Carolina, known more for its ability to lock foes down on defense, may not have any issue with that style of play however, especially if the Elite Eight win over Maryland is any evidence. The Terrapins also like to push the tempo and play fast, sitting No. 7 in HerHoopsStats offensive ratings. 

The Gamecocks finished with 86 points on less than 46% shooting, putting up 48 points in the second half thanks to a deep and talented roster than runs way down the bench. South Carolina had seven players score at least five points while firing up 70 shots when the smoke cleared in Greenville.

The Gamecocks put up 86 and 81 points in two meetings with the up-tempo Terrapins (21st in pace) this season and went for 87 and 95 points against a Kentucky team ranked Top 25 in pace. 

Iowa is well behind the Terps in terms of defensive rating, and has relied on Caitlin Clark’s hot hand and that frenetic offense to overwhelm foes. The Hawkeyes are drastically undersized and comically understaffed against the big bad Gamecocks, who will feast on a defense that’s giving up 14.3 offensive rebounds per game to tournament competition.

That means high-quality looks around the rim and second shots when those bunnies don’t drop. South Carolina ransacked much stiffer defenses than the one it'll face Friday and while I can’t deny Clark’s ability to keep the Hawkeyes afloat, the Gamecocks can counter-punch with a ton of scoring options that will just keep coming for 40 minutes.

My best bet: South Carolina TT Over 80.5 (-120 at bet365)

Iowa vs South Carolina spread analysis

Following South Carolina’s win over Maryland in the Elite Eight, books opened the Gamecocks as 11.5-point favorites against Iowa, and that spread has jumped to -12 in the past two days. 

South Carolina just fell short of covering the 15-point spread with that 97-83 victory over the Terps on Monday and narrowly missed covering the 17-point line in a 59-43 win over UCLA in the Sweet 16 with those contests taking place in Greenville, SC.

Double-digit chalk is nothing new for Dawn Staley’s squad, which owns an average margin of +29.5 points per game on the season. That advantage has slimmed to +22.5 during the tournament, but South Carolina has proven its worth on both ends of the floor en route to this third straight Final Four appearance.

The Gamecocks have multiple ways to win basketball games, as evidenced by those results above. But it’s the defensive prowess that has South Carolina unblemished on the year and knocking on the door of back-to-back titles. The Gamecocks held their first three tournament foes to under 50 points, and have checked opponents to less than 34% shooting overall.

That stingy strategy gets a true test in Player of the Year Caitlin Clark, who has wowed basketball fans all season. The Hawkeyes junior guard exploded onto the national scene with her work in Seattle the past two games, pushing Iowa through with 31 points in the Sweet 16 win over Colorado, and a 41-point triple-down in the Elite Eight victory over Louisville.

Iowa covered as a 5.5-point favorite against the Cardinals and made good as 6.5-point neutral-site chalk versus the Buffaloes, thanks to that Clark-led offense. On the season, the Hawkeyes ranked No. 1 in HerHoopsStats offensive rating, and poured in a NCAA-high 87.6 points per game. In the tournament, Iowa has maintained that gear, with over 88 points per outing on 53.3% shooting.

Iowa vs South Carolina Over/Under analysis

Friday’s Final Four total opened at 148.5 points, and has climbed to 149.5 as of Thursday afternoon. 

This number is much higher than South Carolina’s previous two totals of 127.5 versus UCLA (went Under) and the 136.5-point Over/Under against Maryland, which the Gamecocks flew over in that 86-75 shootout. 

The Hawkeyes are routinely tabbed with tall totals, going well Over the 150.5-point number against Colorado, and topping the 149-point number set against Louisville.

Iowa definitely wants to pick up the pace against a more plodding South Carolina attack, and this current total spins yarn of an up-tempo game script. South Carolina has played against some elite foes that run a similar tempo attack, and has steered into that skid with big offensive outings of its own.

The Gamecocks run an extremely efficient offense that leans into its strength inside and gets to the rim for high-percentage looks. On top of that, South Carolina crashes the offensive glass better than any program in the country, collecting rare misses for put backs and extra possessions.

The Hawkeyes are going to have trouble keeping the likes of Aliyah Boston and 6-foot-7 center Kamilla Cardoso off the offensive boards, and will be trying to trade out 2-pointers for triples on the other end. Iowa shoots a ton of 3-point attempts and makes almost 38% of those long-range looks on the season. 

That touch from distance has been dialed up in the tournament, with Iowa making more than 43% of its shots from beyond the arc and knocking down an average of 11 3-pointers per tournament outing, including 16 of 35 attempts from distance in the Elite Eight.

Iowa vs South Carolina betting trend to know

South Carolina has scored 80 or more points in 20 of its 36 straight wins this season. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. South Carolina.

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