It is down to the nitty-gritty in the Women's NCAA Tournament. A battle between two top-seeded teams will take place tonight as the No. 1 Texas Longhorns face the No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks.
These two programs are very familiar to one another after meeting three times already this season, and their heated matchups have gone back-and-forth.
In their fourth and final contest, the Longhorns will be looking for payback after the Gamecocks handed them a humbling 19-point defeat in the SEC Tournament.
We're in for a wild ride in this Final Four showcase as we dip into my Texas vs. South Carolina predictions and women's college basketball picks for Friday, April 4.
Who will win Texas vs South Carolina?
The Texas Longhorns have a vendetta. Let's roll the tape back to January when these teams first met, and South Carolina came out swinging with a 17-point victory.
In their second matchup, the Longhorns managed to give the Gamecocks a taste of their own medicine by narrowly escaping with a 4-point win on their home floor.
Last, but certainly not least, the SEC Tournament title game brought these teams face-to-face once again, and this time around it was Dawn Staley's squad that took care of business.
Based on the seesaw trend of this particular matchup, a part of me wants to say that Texas has this one in the bag. However, it's the Final Four and the Gamecocks often deliver when the stakes are high. I don't see that changing here, but the Longhorns will do just enough to make them sweat.
Texas vs South Carolina prediction
My best bet: Under 124.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
The previous three matchups between the Texas Longhorns and the South Carolina Gamecocks have been a treat for Under bettors. Texas has averaged 53.7 points vs. the Gamecocks this season, and I expect their offense to be stifled in this one as well by South Carolina's tenacious defense.
That same defense has gotten the Gamecocks out of a few sticky situations dating back to the regular season, where they have had to answer quite a few wake-up calls after being upset by UCLA and UConn — who will have their own intense matchup on the other end of this Final Four quartet. In true Staley fashion, her team has kept their composure and didn't allow uncharacteristic losses to dictate the narrative of their season.
There's still apprehension on if South Carolina can manage to withstand teams like the Huskies and the Bruins, but before they can look ahead, they have to handle the Longhorns. They have Texas' number, without a doubt, but it's on their younger stars to step up and show out after a having insufficient performances from Joyce Edwards, Tessa Johnson, and MiLaysia Fulwiley — who combined for nine points on 4-of-14 shooting against Duke in the Elite Eight. Unacceptable, even with veterans to rely on.
Despite their last showing, the Gamecocks know better, so they will indeed do better in this stretch. After out-rebounding one of the best rebounding teams in the country this season when they took out Maryland in the Sweet 16 — who was held 13 points below its season scoring average and only allowed 39.1% shooting — and controlling the game on defense against another standout in Duke on Sunday, South Carolina has the formula to put on a masterclass and keep this total low.
Texas vs South Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 124.5
Texas 1H moneyline
Texas +5
The Longhorns are going to keep this one tight, and given how South Carolina has been pushed to their limits with scratching and clawing out close wins, I see Texas getting the best of the Gamecocks and heading into halftime with a lead. As an agent of chaos, this will be exactly what ignites South Carolina to tighten up and come out blazing on both ends in the second half.
There's still faith in Texas bringing this down to the wire, even beyond the first half. It's the Final Four, so why wouldn't they? Due to that, we can count on this one not becoming a blowout (unlike the outcome of their SEC Tournament match) and bet on Longhorns covering the spread.
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Texas vs South Carolina odds
| Texas | South Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| +190 | Moneyline | -230 |
| +5 (-105) | Spread | -5 (-115) |
| Over 124.5 (-110) | Total | Under 124.5 (-110) |
Texas vs South Carolina opening odds
- Spread: Texas +4.5 (-105) | South Carolina -4.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Texas +190 | South Carolina -230
- Over/Under: Over 125.5 (-110) | Under 125.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
How to watch Texas vs South Carolina
| Location | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Friday, 4-4-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Texas vs South Carolina key injuries
Texas: No key injuries.
South Carolina: No key injuries.
Not intended for use in MA.
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