Mick Cronin’s UCLA Bruins (11-6, 2-4 Big Ten) look to snap a four-game losing streak when they host the Iowa Hawkeyes (12-5, 3-3 Big Ten) at Pauley Pavilion on Friday night.
Bookmakers have established the Bruins as a seven-point favorite, totaling 152.5.
Will the Bruins snap out of a funk with a winnable home game? Check out our Iowa vs. UCLA predictions and college basketball picks for Friday, January 17.
Iowa vs UCLA prediction
My best bet
Iowa +7 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
One could say that it has been a tough stretch for the UCLA Bruins lately. In fact, that’d actually be underselling the point — the Bruins are in a world of hurt.
They’ve dropped four straight games and five of their last six. Tune into a Mick Cronin press conference anytime in the last two weeks or so, and you’ll start worrying about the man’s sanity and well-being.
He’s trying to get his team to respond to his demands of toughness and physicality, but it’s not working — and the offense stinks yet again. There are bigger issues at play here than just yelling at your players to get them to try harder.
I’m betting the flaws are taped over with a Band-Aid and fixed that easily.
The Bruins' identity is on the defensive end, where they rank second nationally in turnover rate. However, they’ve struggled lately, ranking 10th in the Big Ten in adjusted defensive efficiency in conference play.
The offense ranks 100th in adjusted efficiency and is outside the top 150 in 2-point field goal percentage (152nd at 52.8%) and 3-point percentage (215th at 33.2%).
Due mainly to their struggles on this end, they’ve been unable to pull away from teams — their average margin of victory in their four wins over power conference opponents is 4.8 points, a few ticks down from the spread of -7.
The Iowa Hawkeyes fell flat in an 89-99 loss to USC in the first leg of this Southern California road trip. They’ve mostly been playing good ball otherwise, blowing out Indiana and beating Nebraska in overtime.
The USC loss becomes more excusable when you consider the Trojans are on a mini-heater, beating No. 19 Illinois by 10 in Champaign one game before toppling the Hawkeyes.
Iowa has the far more competent offense and is catching a touchdown against a team that hasn’t covered a spread since December. Cronin’s team went through wild fluctuations a season ago and it looks like his team plans on doing the same thing once again.
I’ll need to see them out of their swoon before buying back in, and recent results — a four-game losing streak by an average margin of 13 points — are troubling.
Iowa vs UCLA same-game parlay (SGP)
Iowa +7
Over 152.5
I’ve been pretty negative about UCLA so far, so allow me to name a positive. The Bruins thrive offensively when they get to the rim, ranking ninth in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponent (per Haslametrics).
Iowa is pretty forgiving to look around the basket, ranking 280th in near-proximity attempt rate allowed and 153rd in near-proximity field goal percentage vs. the average opponents.
UCLA players like Tyler Bilodeau, Eric Dailey Jr., and Sebastian Mack should get plenty of the looks they’re hoping for in this matchup.
In fact, Iowa’s defense is very forgiving, as usual under Fran McCaffery. The Hawkeyes rank 130th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
They play at a fast pace (18th in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), and this matchup could become high-scoring if UCLA’s defense doesn’t right the ship after a string of underwhelming performances.
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Iowa vs UCLA odds
Iowa vs UCLA live odds
Iowa vs UCLA opening odds
- Spread: Iowa +6.5 (-110) | UCLA -6.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa (+240) | UCLA (-300)
- Over/Under: Over 154.5 (-115) | Under 154.5 (-105)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Iowa vs UCLA betting trend to know
UCLA is 0-5 ATS when favored by 1-12 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. UCLA. Find more college basketball betting trends for Iowa vs. UCLA.
How to watch Iowa vs UCLA
| Location: | Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Friday, 1-17-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
Iowa vs UCLA key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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