Iowa vs Wisconsin Picks and Predictions: Hawkeyes' Offense Fuels Another Cover

Fresh off a big road victory against Purdue, Wisconsin will welcome Iowa to Madison for another Big Ten matchup. 

Wisconsin is finally fully healthy, and it proved beneficial in their win against Purdue. Iowa is on a four-game winning streak and found a way to beat Maryland, at home, 80-75. 

So what do we have in store for tonight? Here are our college basketball picks and predictions for Iowa vs Wisconsin on January 6. 

Iowa vs Wisconsin odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Wisconsin opened as a 1.5-point favorite and have now been bet up to -2.5 at every outlet. Meanwhile, the total has dropped from 148 to as low as 146.5 at a couple of sportsbooks. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Iowa vs Wisconsin predictions

• Prediction: Iowa +2.5 (-110)
• Prediction: Over 146.5 (-120)
• Best bet: Iowa +2.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 1/6/2022 at 8:50 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Iowa vs Wisconsin game info

• Location: Kohl Center, Madison, WI
• Date: Friday, January 6, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1

Iowa at Wisconsin betting preview

Injuries

Iowa: TJosh Ogundele F (Questionable).
Wisconsin: No injuries to report.

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight-up win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Iowa vs. Wisconsin.

Iowa vs Wisconsin picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

The Wisconsin Badgers are fully healthy and that’s just one reason why the Badgers were able to pull off a shocking upset against Purdue, on the road. 

Wisconsin is only averaging 70.6 points per game, but the Badgers have allowed just 63.6 points per game on the season defensively. 

The Badgers will rarely turn the ball over on offense, giving the ball up just 12.2% of the time. This is crucial for Wisconsin because the Badgers only shoot an effective field goal percentage of 46.5% while hitting under 30% from three and 47.4% from inside the arc. 

When you shoot this poorly from the field, attempts matter so much more. Wisconsin limiting turnovers is crucial to its success this season. 

Meanwhile, defensively, the Badgers have held opponents to 33.7% from three and 46.3% from inside the arc. It’s nothing special, but everything Wisconsin does is above average on defense. The Badgers are 31st in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and continue to play well on that side of the court. 

But Iowa’s going to be a big challenge defensively. The Hawkeyes are third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and are shooting an effective field goal percentage of 54.7%. While Wisconsin is only averaging a 12.2% turnover rate, Iowa is averaging 12.1%. And Iowa can shoot so much better than Wisconsin can. 

The Hawkeyes are shooting 35.4% from deep and 55.6% from inside the arc. They’ve also earned 32.3% offensive rebounds and should get to the line at the same rate as Wisconsin. 

I’d be extremely impressed if Wisconsin won back-to-back games over Purdue and Iowa. But I don’t see it happening. 

Prediction: Iowa +2.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Iowa’s offense is one of the fastest in the nation. The Hawkeyes use 14.9 seconds per possession and score over 87 points per game with terrific shooting from the field. 

The Badgers aren’t an easy defense to break down, but knowing there won’t be many turnovers in this game, I’m liking the Over. 

I know there won’t be many transition points off steals, which could help reach the Over, but the expectation is that we’ll see plenty of shot attempts in this game. The more shot attempts, the more chance you’ve got to win the Over. 

Both teams are above average at getting to the line and in a Big Ten conference game, there’s reason to think that this game could see whistles blown at a higher rate. 

So, I’ll take the Over with the number starting to trend downward. 

Prediction: Over 146.5 (-110)

Best bet

It’s never easy to win on the road in the Big Ten, but I’m not confident in Wisconsin’s ability to stick around offensively against Iowa. Iowa is averaging 87.4 points per game, and I find it hard to believe Wisconsin will be able to defend well enough to hold Iowa to under 65 points in this game.

Wisconsin would need to put together an efficiency clinic and win a shootout against Iowa if they want a chance. 

I’ll take my chances with the better team in Iowa. 

Pick: Iowa +2.5 (-110)

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