Kansas State vs Kansas Picks and Predictions: Chalk Up Another One for Hawks

The No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks continue to build their case for a top seed in the Big Dance. Following its loss to Kentucky in the Big 12 / SEC challenge three weeks ago, Kansas has picked up five wins in its last six. On Tuesday they will host the Kansas State Wildcats, who have won four of their last six. The matchup between the two Big 12 programs features a lot of nuance and context that unearths value on one side.

Continue reading for free college basketball picks and predictions for Kansas State vs Kansas on Tuesday, February 22nd.

Kansas State vs Kansas odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Kansas opened as a 12.5-point favorite and has seen movement both ways, currently sitting at -12. The total opened at 143 and has since been bet down to 141.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until tip-off and be sure to check out the full college basketball odds before placing your bets.

Kansas State vs Kansas predictions

• Prediction: Kansas -12 (-110)
• Prediction: Under 141.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Kansas -12 (-110)

Predictions made on 2/22/2022 at 1:50 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Kansas State vs Kansas game info

• Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
• Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN2

Kansas State at Kansas betting preview

Injuries

Kansas State: None.
Kansas: Richie Martin G (Out).

Find our latest NCAA basketball injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Kansas has played 6-1 to the Under in conference play on totals of 140 or more. Kansas State has played 7-1 to the Under on totals of 136 or more. Find more NCAA betting trends for Kansas State vs. Kansas.

Kansas State vs Kansas picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

Kansas has continued to build its case for a No. 1 seed come March, following a win on the road against West Virginia on Saturday. Kansas is now fifth in the NCAA's NET ratings and tied for the most Quadrant 1 wins in the nation with its record standing at 10-3 in that subset of games. Kansas’ one Quadrant 2 loss will keep it behind the likes of Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky - all of whom flaunt a flawless record across Quadrants 2 through 4. Houston is one spot ahead in the NET ratings and Baylor is one spot behind, but the former is 0-3 in Quadrant 1 games and the latter is a smidge behind the Jayhawks with a 10-4 Quadrant 1 record.

Tuesday's matchup against Kansas State represents a situation in which Kansas has little to gain but a lot to lose. Using the criteria above, tonight's game represents a Quadrant 2 game for the Jayhawks given that Kansas State currently ranks 60th in the NET ratings. A loss would potentially give Baylor an edge in the minds of the selection committee, given that both teams currently have a 5-1 Quadrant 2 record. With that in mind, it's of the utmost importance that Bill Self and his team do not come in with an unsuspecting demeanor.

Kansas has the firepower, boasting a fifth overall rank in KenPom, which includes a fourth-ranked offense that has put up 70+ in all but one game in the last month. That doesn't bode well for a Kansas State defense that’s seemingly feast-or-famine when it comes to playing low-end offenses and high-end offenses. A perfect example is the current "elevated" play its defense has seen as of late.

In the last six games, Kansas State has played the likes of Oklahoma State (twice), West Virginia, Iowa State, TCU, and Baylor. In the five games against those first four teams they allowed just 66.6 points per game and went 4-1 in the process, the lone loss coming on the road in overtime to Oklahoma State. However, none of those teams rank inside the Top 100 in KenPom offense.

Compare that to the 75 points it allowed to Baylor (eighth in KenPom offense) in a 15-point loss at home. In fact, this is a recurring theme for Kansas State across the entire season — their "signature" defensive performance was holding Texas to 65 points, and outside of that it's hard to find another comparable example.

The offense is similarly lopsided. Nijel Pack is the Wildcats' undeniable star, averaging 17.5 points per game while shooting 42.9% from deep on 7.6 attempts per game. Only one other player averaging five or more points per game shoots above 40% from the field as a whole, which is senior guard Mark Smith (12.3 PPG, 8.6 RPG). This is largely why Kansas State ranks second-worst in field goal percentage in Big 12 play despite ranking first in three-point percentage. And given that Kansas allows the 33rd-lowest three-point percentage in the nation and a crippling conference-low 26.9% from deep, we may see a lot of empty Kansas State possessions tonight.

Prediction: Kansas -12 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Kansas State has played 5-1 to the Over as of late, but tonight's total of 141.5 represents the second-highest total Kansas State has seen all season. The only time it was higher, the Wildcats played 15 points to the Under, and to get a broader idea of how they play in totals that are relatively high for them, there's this: Kansas State has gone 7-1 to the Under in totals of 136 or higher.

Kansas is always a threat to put up a barrage of points, but its performance against higher totals also paints a different picture. While the Jayhawks did start 6-2-1 to the Over in totals of 140+, they have since gone 6-1 to the Under since conference play began. And again, given that their defense is well-equipped to shut down Kansas' State's largest offensive strength, Tuesday night is shaping up to be another time Kansas plays Under a lofty total.

Prediction: Under 141.5 (-110)

Best bet

Kansas has seemingly turned up the intensity since its loss to Kentucky in the Big 12 / SEC challenge a little under a month ago. Knowing that loss put them firmly behind the likes of Gonzaga, Arizona, and Kentucky, Bill Self and the Jayhawks have ensured that they continue building their resume back up.

The Jayhawks have won five of the six games they've played since, with their lone loss coming on the road against Texas — which concluded a rough five-game stretch in their schedule where they played five straight ranked opponents. They covered the spread in four of those five wins and did so by an average of 10.5 points. 

And while Kansas State did play them close with just a three-point loss in the first matchup, that's more reason to believe Bill Self won't be unsuspecting of the Wildcats heading into Tuesday night's affair. When adding in the context of where Kansas stands in the NET rankings and in Quadrant wins, as well as the structure of the matchup, it's hard to imagine anything but a definitive win for the Jayhawks on Tuesday.

Pick: Kansas -12 (-110)

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